News Analysis: Ground offensive in Syria would harm Turkey's own interests: analysts
Xinhua, February 15, 2016 Adjust font size:
Turkey's posturing on possible ground incursion into its southern neighbor Syria over Kurdish militia gains may not serve Ankara's interests at all, risks creating a backlash against Turkey, analysts here believe.
"There is no exit strategy that will help such an incursion to succeed at all," Emre Soncan, Ankara-based security analyst told Xinhua on Monday.
"Turkish military is aware of the risks stemming from the opposition of Russia, the United States and other countries to a ground offensive by Turkey," he added.
Feared about an emergence of an independent or an autonomous Kurdish region in Northern Syria close to the Turkish border, Turkish military has been shelling positions of the Kurdish People's Protections Units (YPG), the armed faction of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), since Saturday to halt their advance.
On Monday, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters en route to Kiev that Ankara will oppose the liquidation of moderate rebel groups in Syria and cutting off supply routes between Aleppo and Turkish border by YPG forces that cooperates with Russia and Syrian government.
"When we saw a need, interventions we deemed necessary will be undertaken," he remarked.
He noted that Turkey won't allow the fall of the rebel-held town of Azaz of Syria's Aleppo province to YPG forces.
In the meantime, Davutoglu also dismissed reports on Monday that suggested Turkey has entered or about to enter a war with Syria, deeming them as "mere speculations."
Turkish analysts said a possible war with Syria may have catastrophic consequences for Turkey given the opposition by major powers to such Turkish action.
"Turkey has no material capacity to silence the Kurds, nor the capacity to defeat the Assad regime," said Gokhan Bacik, professor of International Relations at Ankara-based Ipek University, recalling that the Russian intervention has changed the realities on the ground in Syria dramatically.
Bacik criticized government officials for playing into fear rather than protecting its national interests.
Turkey is already in a difficult position stemming from its own Kurdish insurgency being mounted by the outlawed Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) in predominantly Kurdish southeastern provinces.
Turkish army has been battling with the PKK in several cities in the southeast for months. It also beefed up security measures along the Syrian border against the militants of the PKK, the PYD and Islamic State (IS).
Ankara said both the PKK and PYD are cut from the same cloth and categorizes both as terrorist organizations.
The United States and the European Union said they consider the PKK as terrorist group but not the PYD that fights against IS in Syria.
Turkey's political parties in opposition are uneasy about Turkey's alliance with Saudi Arabia.
Baris Yarkadas, the deputy from the main opposition Republican Peoples' Party (CHP), said Turkey is being dragged to a war in Syria.
He warned the government not to put Turkish military into a circle of fire by following Saudi lead in Syrian conflict. Endit