News Analysis: After Iowa caucuses, Republican Party now running three-man race

The U.S. Republican Party (GOP) is now running a three-man race for the nomination to run for president in 2016, as Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio emerged as the top three in Iowa caucuses Monday. But who will clinch final victory is still anybody's game.

Cruz, the conservative senator from Texas, won Iowa with 27.6 percent of the Republican vote, followed by Trump's 24.3 percent and Rubio's 23.1 percent.

It was a surprise defeat for Trump, the controversial real estate mogul who had been shown in the lead in most polls ahead of the Iowa caucuses. A confident Trump even skipped the crucial GOP presidential debate on Thursday hosted by the Fox News.

Some blamed Trump's boycott of the debate for his loss in Iowa as Fox News has been very popular among conservatives, who also love the debate moderator Megan Kelley whose feuding with Trump led to his decision to opt out of the debate. But being liberal on some issues might have also played a role in Trump's defeat in this very religious state.

"Trump lost Iowa because evangelicals have not warmed up to him. He isn't as comfortable as Cruz in talking about religion and he has taken a number of positions over the years that are not conservative. Cruz used these flip-flops against Trump in Iowa," Brookings Institution's senior fellow Darrell West told Xinhua.

Iowa was tailor-made for Cruz's candidacy as it has an outsized evangelical population and it elects the candidate in a caucus format, Republican strategist Ford O'Connell told Xinhua.

Indeed, deeply religious Protestants comprise 56 percent of Iowa's voters, and the state has a high percentage of GOP caucus participants.

As opposed to a primary election, in which voters just head to the polls, a caucus means people go to precinct meetings. Cruz had thousands of volunteers working the state's 1,681 precincts for over a month. That ground game, coupled with his weight with the outsized evangelical population, carried him to clinch the caucuses.

Cruz is fluent in the language of evangelicals and his father is a pastor. As he and his team canvased the U.S. state of Iowa in the lead-up to Monday's caucuses, he peppered his speeches with religious references in a bid to appeal to a state with a stronger-than-average evangelical presence.

"Cruz has good cards to play with evangelicals because he speaks their language and his father is a prominent pastor in that community. He is comfortable quoting biblical passages and talking openly about the power of prayer," West said.

After Iowa, the Republican nomination race is far from a done deal, as it now has emerged as one among the three anti-establishment and anti-Washington candidates.

Despite the first win, it remains unknown whether Cruz can carry that momentum forward into the next round.

Cruz's emphasis on religion might not work well in other states that do not have such a strong evangelical presence, West contended.

The candidates' next test is the primary to be held next week in the state of New Hampshire, which is not as religious as Iowa and has a different set of voters with different priorities.

"New Hampshire will be a tougher state for Cruz because it is more moderate in terms of politics and religion. (Cruz) needs to figure out ways to connect with other voters in order to expand his support among 27 percent of the GOP electorate," West said.

While Iowa is symbolic of the elections' direction, former caucus losers have gone on to win big. Indeed, former President Ronald Reagan lost the 1980 Iowa caucuses but bounced back later and went on to win his party's nomination and the White House.

"New Hampshire should be better terrain for Trump because it is not as conservative as Iowa. We haven't heard the last of Donald Trump," West said.

While experts agreed that Trump remains a major player, the growing sense of inevitability of a Trump nomination was pierced on Monday.

Aside from Cruz's win, Florida Senator Rubio also had a big night, coming in essentially neck-in-neck with Trump, who has led the polls on the national stage for months.

On Rubio, O'Connell said his performance "absolutely exceeded expectations."

"The key for Rubio here is to be able to parlay that momentum into at least a second place finish in New Hampshire," O'Connell said.

The goal for Rubio in New Hampshire should be to solidify that perception that this is a three-man race, he added.

While Trump garnered much media attention in recent months on his colorful or even controversial statements, he will now have to share the media spotlight with the other two candidates, experts said.

After losing Iowa, it will be less easy for Trump to dominate with over-the-top soundbites and controversial statements, as he has often done.

Some people have started to speculate whether Trump will run as an independent if he finally fails to win the GOP nomination.

The controversial candidate said in the past that he would do so, to the horror of many Republicans who fear that such a move would split the GOP vote and hand the election to the Democratic candidate.

"There is a possibility that Trump will run as an independent if he doesn't get the GOP nomination. He would have to run well in a number of states in order to put himself in a position where this would be politically possible," West said. Endit