HK economists expect U.S. to be major economic driver in 2016

Economists from Invesco Hong Kong Limited, an investment management company, forecast on Wednesday that the U.S. will remain the locomotive for the world economy; and the global stock market will see volatility in 2016.

Invesco's Chief Economist John Greenwood said at a press conference that the U.S. will continue to be the major driver for global growth in 2016, with the recent U.S. Federal Reserve's rate rise an indicator that growth is on a solid footing. He expected rate rise will happen four times this year, with a growth of 0.25 percent each time.

Greenwood said a hard landing in China's mainland is unlikely this year and he expected a GDP growth of 6.6 percent in 2015 and a CPI growth of 1.6 percent in the mainland in 2016.

He also mentioned that recent emerging markets weakness is a correction of the excessive stimulus measures in those markets following the 2008/09 downturn in developed economies. Key emerging markets will continue to recover through 2016 from that episode of overheating.

Invesco's Chief investment Officer, Asia ex-Japan Paul Chan said low growth, low rates and low returns will continue through 2016, accompanied by increased equity market volatility.

Chan said the U.S. will become the bright spot, noting that earnings growth in the U.S. supports the outperformance of U.S. equities. And similar to U.S. firms, share buybacks in Japan have surged and he expected them to gain momentum.

As for the mainland, although a weaker RMB is deflationary, a noteworthy development is a rebound in IPOs, Chan said, the IPO pipeline points to similar buoyant activity in 2016.

Furthermore, strong demand from mainland investors will make offshore China bonds comparatively more stable than some other Asian, emerging markets or developed markets' fixed income. Enditem