Spotlight: 2016 expected to be "year of change" for North America

When 47-year-old U.S. Senator Barack Obama first ran for president in 2008, "change" was his campaign slogan and theme, which was widely considered as the main reason behind his landslide victory.

Now with the once ambitious president entering his final year in office as a lame duck and the nation on the threshold of another presidential election, what America needs most is still "change."

POLITICS

When the battle for 2016 presidential nomination started in early 2015, many expected to see a clash between the two so-called "presidential families" -- the Bushes and the Clintons, and few would have believed that someone like Donald Trump, a political establishment outsider, would stand a chance.

The 69-year-old New York real-estate mogul, whose blunt and offensive remarks have provoked the ire of quite a few social and racial groups, seemed to have broken every rule a conventional presidential candidate should observe. Nevertheless, he has maintained a solid lead against all his Republican rivals including former Florida governor Jeb Bush in every major voters poll, and survived multiple heated debates despite often becoming a common target.

Political observers believe that behind the "Trump phenomenon" lies the American people's desire for some real change in Washington politics. In the past seven years, instead of seeing the promised "Change we can believe in," they have seen endless political impasse between the White House and Congress, as well as Republicans and Democrats in Congress, which not only stalled all badly-needed reforms from immigration and gun control to tax and education, but also resulted in the 2013 sequestration and government shutdown.

As found in a national telephone survey released by Rasmussen Reports in early December, just 9 percent of likely U.S. voters think Congress is doing a good or excellent job, while 59 percent think just the opposite.

It might be too early to predict how far Trump could actually go, but the message from the American voters to all presidential candidates including the next president is quite clear -- they are already fed up with politicians who are always "politically correct," and they want someone who has the courage, resolve and wisdom to make the government do the right things.

In Canada, the United States' northern neighbor, change has already taken place. In the late October general election, the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau won a decisive victory to end nearly a decade of Conservative rule.

While media reports and online talks showed much interest in Trudeau's family background -- being the son of late prime minister Pierre Trudeau -- and even his good looks, the Liberals actually benefited a lot from Canadians' growing dissatisfaction with the government led by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, and from their campaign pledge to bring "real change" for the middle class and the nation as a whole. For the 43-year-old new prime minister, 2016 is a year to fulfill promises and deliver results.

ECONOMY

After lengthy waiting and several postponements, the U.S. Federal Reserve finally decided on Dec. 16 to raise its benchmark interest rate, for the first time in nearly a decade. The U.S. central bank also stated that there will only be "gradual increases" in the federal funds rate given the current economic conditions.

A highly-anticipated move, the Fed's rate hike didn't send any immediate shock waves across global markets as feared.

Still, the complete end of the ultra-easy monetary policy in the world's largest economy would have a profound impact both at home and overseas. With analysts predicting four more Fed rate hikes in 2016, Americans may have to think about changing their financing plans and rebalancing their spendings and savings, while other countries, particularly emerging economies like China, must adjust their macro and microeconomic policies to deal with increased uncertainties and potential risks.

In contrast to the strengthening U.S. dollar, international oil prices have kept falling, with the New York crude futures plummeting 68 percent in 18 months to a nearly seven-year low. Though it was good news for consumers and the overall economy, the energy sector in both the United States and Canada, especially the shale oil/gas and oil sand production that boomed in recent years, faced grim prospects.

Some industry analysts warned that if no action was taken to reduce cost and raise efficiency through innovation and strategic changes, the U.S. domestic shale oil and gas sector could collapse. In western Canada, shrinking oil business has reportedly caused mass unemployment -- 100,000 jobs lost in 2015 -- and a crash of the real estate market.

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

In 2015, the United Nations, the world's largest and most important intergovernmental organization, celebrated its 70th birthday. Leaders of major world powers gathered at the UN headquarters in New York in September, reiterating the international community's commitment to the UN Charter and reemphasizing the world body's key role in promoting global peace and development.

This year, however, witnessed not fewer, but more challenges to peace and security. The prolonged Syria crisis has fueled a severe refugee crisis in Europe, and the rapid expansion of extremist groups like ISIS, along with horrific terror attacks in Paris, the Middle East and Africa, has exposed the lack of coordination and the harm of double standard and geopolitics in the international counterterrorism efforts.

While a historic international pact on climate change the UN had long pushed for was finally inked in Paris in December, the warmest winter in decades in North America -- with New Yorkers experiencing a rare "tropical Christmas" -- underlined the urgency of implementation and the need for more action.

As globalization brings nations closer and turns the world into an intertwined community of shared destiny, global governance reform has become imperative, in which the UN and other major international institutions have a significant role to play.

On Dec. 18, the U.S. congressional approval cleared the way for the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise China's voting share to the third place from the previous sixth. This change, reflecting China's financial commitment to the global lender, was proposed in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, with a detailed plan worked out in 2010, but couldn't take place without support from the United States, which has a big say within the Fund.

This latest breakthrough, along with the IMF's earlier decision to add renminbi, the Chinese currency, to its elite basket of reserve currencies, shall reinforce hope that more positive changes will come for global governance in 2016. Endit