Yearender: LatAm politics faces uncertainty as leftists retreat

Latin American politics is facing uncertainty as leftists have retreated amid an economic downturn due to the slow recovery of the world economy from the financial crisis.

The repeated losses of the leftists in general elections across the region gave rise to two possible results -- either to end the current political cycle represented by anti-neoliberal policies and a dominant role for the state, or to reach new political equilibrium between the left and the right.

CRISES FOR LEFTIST GOVERNMENTS

On Dec. 10, Mauricio Macri took over as Argentinean president, ending the 12-year Kirchner rule. The right-wing leader has quickly begun to put his campaign pledges in place, marking a clear departure from the policies of his predecessor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

Within a few weeks, the Macri administration has eliminated taxes on agricultural exports, the fourth-largest source of government revenues, and lifted capital controls on the trading of foreign currencies.

On Dec. 6, the governing left-wing alliance in Venezuela, known as the Great Patriotic Pole (GPP), suffered a drubbing in legislative elections, winning just 55 seats, as opposed to 112 for the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD).

The super-majority gives MUD the power to put legislation to a referendum, remove officials from office and call an assembly to draft a new constitution.

In Brazil, left-wing President Dilma Rousseff managed to secure a second term in late 2014 but public trust in her evaporated throughout 2015.

According to a poll by the Ibope institute in December, Rousseff's approval rating stood at just 9 percent, largely due to the country's economic recession and a major corruption scandal related to the national oil company, Petrobras.

Furthermore, Rousseff is currently fighting an impeachment process launched by opposition parties, which accuse her government of conducting "irregular" financial transactions with official accounts in 2014 and 2015.

Ecuador is also experiencing political turbulence. Last year, the ruling PAIS Alliance declared a package of constitutional reforms that would allow indefinite re-election for all elected officials, including President Rafael Correa.

However, facing mounting opposition, Correa declared in November that he would not stand for re-election in the 2017 presidential campaign.

DISCONTENT WITH DEPRESSION

The slowdown in the global economy and a lack of trust in international markets were the main reasons leading to the loss of confidence in left-wing administrations across Latin America, political analysts say.

According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the region's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by 0.4 percent in 2015, its worst economic performance since 2009, and recover slowly in 2016 with 0.2 percent growth.

Venezuela and Brazil are the worst affected by current economic conditions, mainly due to low prices for oil and minerals and a drop in foreign demand.

The ECLAC said that Brazil and Venezuela will see their GDPs decrease by 3.5 and 7.1 percent respectively in 2016, as well as rising inflation and great currency devaluation.

Although Argentina will see economic growth, this will be limited to 2 percent in 2016, the ECLAC said.

For Severino Cabral, director of the Brazilian Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, countries that depend on the exports of raw materials and natural resources are suffering particularly badly.

"We are seeing the end of the economic cycle that underpinned the globalization of all markets, which will lead to the rapid and large transformation of the international environment," he said.

POSSIBLE REGULAR POLITICAL CYCLES

The history of Latin America has shown that the region is prone to various political cycles.

From the 1930s to 1950s, the region was marked by populist movements. Military dictatorships rose between the 1960s and 1980s, and neoliberal democracies took their place in the late 1980s and 1990s.

However, after more than a decade in which they profited from advantageous natural resource prices and a favorable political environment, it seems some of the left-wing governments in Latin America may have to take a step back.

For Carlos Eduardo Vidigal, professor of history at the University of Brasilia, it is too early to say that the Latin American left is suffering a major regression.

"For the moment, the left is seeing a major retreat but the traditional elites, which have returned to power, will now be faced with managing the crisis," he said.

Furthermore, these newly elected right-wing governments will face many other challenges, including uncertainty about the future of the current political cycle, said Gustavo Girado, director of the Asia and Argentina consultancy.

Girado said that the previous Argentinean government had reduced the national poverty rate from 40 percent to single digit and extreme poverty had been reduced from 24 percent, when Nestor Kirchner took office in 2003, to under 5 percent. These figures are the official ones of the former Kirchner government but have been contested by international organizations.

Vidigal foresees a bright future for conservative forces in the region for now, but he highlighted the importance of keeping in place the social plans fostered by left-wing governments.

"The social advances seen in recent years cannot be abandoned. The right must deal with this issue," he said. Endi