News analysis: Israel's northern border: a new reality?

Israel's geographic position in the Middle East, coupled with its West-oriented politics, puts it at a unique and often troubled spot.

Changes in the Middle East in recent years have forced Israel to change the way it looks at its borders, its enemies, and its friends and allegiances.

Since Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Mideast War, the border between the two countries has long remained a tense but largely quiet one. The border is not recognized by the international community.

While there were attempts at negotiations between the two sides, nothing ever materialized. The Assad regime and the Israelis learned to co-exist, with sporadic violent events at the border and frequent indirect rhetorical exchanges. This was true even in the days of Hafez al-Assad, father of current Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad.

Now, as Bashar al-Assad fights a civil war which is tearing his country apart, Israel finds itself on the sidelines, still deciding what is better for her.

Professor Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at the Tel Aviv University, says Israel is in "a very fluid and problematic situation."

At the beginning of the Syrian conflict, many Israelis believed toppling of the Assad regime would be better for the small Jewish state.

But as the dust settles, it becomes clear that chances are that should the Syrian leadership be replaced, a more extreme government would be in place, not leaving much room for any kind of settlement with Israel.

And so Israel finds itself on the sidelines watching a Russian intervention, probably hoping for it success.

Israeli and Russian interests meet in an unlikely arena.

According to Dr. Jonathan Dekel-Chen, a senior lecturer at the Department of Russian and Slavic Studies in The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Russia has age-old interest in the area and in Israel specifically.

Israel is positioned close to strategic straits in the Red Sea but also holds important religious and spiritual meaning to Russia.

The Israeli government seems to acquiesce in the Russian involvement in Syria which has intensified in recent weeks.

"The Israeli leadership is silent on the (Russian) involvement because the Israeli interest is that the conflict does not spillover, that Syria will remain as stable as possible," says Dr. Dekel-Chen. "Israel is concerned about the final result, it wants to maintain quiet...it does not matter which regime controls Syria, as long as there will not be upheaval on the border."

Thus, as Russian fighter planes flew close to Israel's guarded northern border, there was no marked increase in tension between the two countries.

In fact, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon admitted weeks ago that a Russian plane had entered Israeli airspace mistakenly. The plane was immediately instructed by Israeli military air traffic control to leave and the incident went by uneventfully.

This came after a more serious incident on the Syrian-Turkish border caused a severe diplomatic rift between Turkey and Russia. Turkey shot down a Russian plane that had briefly invaded its airspace. The tension between the two has the potential of escalating further.

Professor Rabi believes that the Russian presence limits Israel's maneuvering capabilities in the arena. "Israel will have to agree with Russia on new rules of the game...the playing field is not free for Israel to do as it wants anymore," he adds.

According to Dekel-Chen, the fact that there are few incidents is testament to the under-the-radar cooperation between Israel and Russia. "The facts demonstrate that there is goodwill between the two sides," he points out.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin several times in recent months and has stated there will be coordination between the two countries.

In this complicated geopolitical chess game, the United States seems to be a passive player.

The Obama administration's involvement in the Middle East has often demonstrated a lack of basic understanding of the nature of the area and behavioral traits of the players.

Dr. Dekel-Chen, however, believes the American restraint should not be viewed as a weakness, especially in light of the Russian intervention in the region.

"The Russians see a national interest and opportunities. It is not the first time that they are involved in a big project in the Middle East and not every time they do so. It is not a sign of American weakness," he says.

While Assad seems to be a pawn in a greater game, Dekel-Chen believes he is critical for the Russians. "If Assad will not control Syria, the Russians lose their footing in the Middle East."

This is where Israeli and Russian interests intersect.

The current Israeli administration is highly critical of the American government, but still it seems that the official Israel yearns for greater American activism in the Middle East.

In his recent remarks Israeli Defense Minister Ya'alon said the United States was "sitting on the fence" about Syria, creating a vacuum. Was this an invitation from Israel for further involvement? This could be interpreted as criticism of the Russian intervention, something Netanyahu has gone to great lengths not to do.

What emerges from this complicated picture is that there is a new playing field for Israel. This could be an opportunity for the Jewish state to forge relations with the more moderate regimes in the region based on mutual interests.

Rabi says Israel must act on the principle that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." The question remains whether the current Israeli government, largely isolated from the international community, will be skillful enough to play the new field in a way that will be beneficial for the country. Endit