Spotlight: Can Iran's nuclear deal reshape Middle East amid uncertainties?

Although diplomacy could settle Iran's decade-long nuclear standoff, one of the world's most thorny issues, a major question remains unanswered about the deal's implications for the region strewn with sectarian conflicts.

Under a historic nuclear deal signed on July 14 in Vienna, Austria, by Iran and the P5+1 group, namely Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany, Tehran should significantly scale back its atomic plan to address Western countries' concerns over its alleged nuclear weapons program.

Iran would improve the transparency of its nuclear plan, downsize its capacity for uranium enrichment and do changes in the structure of its heavy water reactor in exchange for international and Western sanctions relief.

On Oct. 18, Iran and the world powers announced to start implementing the Vienna agreement, that is, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Besides, Tuesday's adoption of a resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to close the probe into the so-called possible military dimensions (PMD) of Iran's nuclear program after 12 years was a major step for the lift of the international and Western sanctions against the Islamic republic and confirmation of the completion of Iran's preliminary measures subject to JCPOA.

The possible removal of sanction early next year, if everything advances as scheduled, will definitely empower Iran, which will inevitably bear important consequences.

The emerging politico-economic power is likely to destabilize the region as Tehran will seek further influence in certain states and to remain a threat to the Middle East security, some international analysts said.

A SORE TO REGIONAL STABILITY?

Iran, despite sanctions hardship, did not quit its financial supports to Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and if nuclear-related sanctions are lifted in whole or in parts, an influx of Iranian money will enable Iran's allies to push for its political agenda in the region, said Matthew Levitt, Fromer-Wexler Fellow and Director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Also, Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington states that if "no significant diplomatic steps are taken to create other means of resolving regional crises, the (Iranian) nuclear deal might actually contribute to a more unstable and violent Middle East."

Following the rise of the Islamic Republic in the late 1970s and during the past three decades, the region has been wrestling with a series of political conflicts as well as emerging sectarian discords extending from east to west, from Afghanistan through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and down to Yemen, all of which the embodiments of uncertainties across Middle Eastern geography.

Major regional political players have now emerged as the vocal actors in the conflict-ridden parts of the region seeking to put their signature in the geopolitical alignment of the Middle East in the aftermath of implementing Iran's nuclear deal.

Although Iran's regional rival Suadi Arabia and most of the Arab states of Persian Gulf have cautiously welcomed the deal, they are still worried about instability of the region with Iran's never-ceasing appetite to boost influence in the region. Iran, as the sole Muslim Shiite state in the world, dreams of Syria, Iraq and Lebanon as its allied blocs, as it is well aware of the dynamics of the ideology that it propagates in those Arab states. This may expand its imaginary borders to the Mediteranian Sea, to touch the borders of Israel as Iran's arc-enemy.

Such contemplations about the possible repercussions of the deal have called for the formation of new alliances as means to counter perils unknown.

On August 18, the Jerusalem Post wrote that Iran's nuclear deal in July led the Saudis to increase their behind-the-scenes cooperation with Israel to unprecedented levels, which extended to major joint security cooperation in the event of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

"The Iran nuclear deal has dramatically shifted Middle Eastern geopolitical tectonic plates, and has heralded a new reality in which Sunni Arabs need Israel more than ever to solidify their front against Iran," it read.

The cited words echo not only the failure to open an Iran-Arab dialogue and convergence on the regional affairs, like Syria, Yemen and the sectarian conflicts, but picture a drama with more "sound and fury."

BENEFITS OF THE DEAL

However, the proponents of the deal argue that it would result in the security of geographical ambience, reformulate its stability and consolidate regional clout.

For Tehran, the nuclear agreement has brought about new conditions and it is trying to start new talks with the regional states on various issues including the fight against terrorism in a unified front.

Following the deal, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif started a series of regional tours bearing the message that the agreement rooted out "Iranophobia" and that Iran's problems with some of its neighbors can be resolved at the diplomatic level.

Masoud Rezaei, the Iranian expert in international relations at the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies said on August 18 that "Obama is willing to involve Iran with the Middle East equations so that by assigning a regional role to Tehran, turn it from a centrifugal force into an agent of stability in the Middle East," according to Iran Review website.

"Therefore, the Middle East that will be shaped on the basis of Obama's doctrine can be considered as the Newer Middle East. The Newer Middle East is a concept which does not ignore Iran and in which many regional problems are solved by countries in the region," Rezaei was quoted as saying.

Based on the positive outlooks of the deal, Tehran had been the lost ring in the economic and political equations of the region over the past decades. Iran is expected to regain its status in the new climate for the good of the whole region.

Through the same perspective, the foreign policy of the Islamic republic in 2015 can be considered as successful and pragmatic since it reached a level of "operational productivity."

It had been able to remove the obstacles in the way of the country, for the first time during the past decade, to get engaged with the international community and regional states.

Nuclear deal is also a recognition of Iran's balancing role in the political equations of the region, and it shows that "the era of sidelining Iran in regional equations is over, and the West's insistence for overlooking Iran's balancing power has been the root cause of numerous crises in the Middle East," the political analyst, Ali Mohaqeq, wrote in Iran's Ebtekar daily.

From the economic perspective, the deal has also created unprecedented opportunities for economic development in the Middle East, the Iranian economic expert, Mehrdad Emadi, told Entekhab Khabar website.

"Iran should not be viewed a geography with 75 million population, but a new gate to a new economic zone with the potentiality of economic transactions among some 400 million people," Emadi said, adding that "Iran would serve as a channel for investments and access to new markets," he said

This is the capacity of the recent nuclear deal which will assign a regional role for Iran to actively and directly engage with the United States and the West to reformulate the relations in its neighborhood, Emadi of London's Betamatrix consultancy added. Endit