News Analysis: What stands in the way of global climate agreement?

After years and years of failed negotiations, the fate of securing a landmark global agreement to curb climate change has boiled down to a revised draft of 27 pages released Thursday at the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21).

The jury is out on the verdict on the latest negotiating text, with some experts on one hand saying what's on the table has the "ingredients for an ambitious outcome."

However, very real differences still remain between countries and "extremely difficult decisions" will need to be taken before the weekend deadline set by the French hosts of the UN conference.

These last hours are key because it's the quality of the final agreement that will determine whether global warming is restricted to 1.5 degrees Celsius or slides beyond a disastrous 3 degrees Celsius.

So, what are the main sticking points and how can they be resolved in time to secure a potentially historic result in Paris?

"RED LINE" ISSUES

As is often the case, it's all about the money. One of the so-called "red line" issues is climate financing: in other words, who exactly will pay how much to whom and under what conditions?

Emerging nations continue to demand a transfer of know-how and finances to adopt latest green technologies and decrease their reliance on heavily polluting fossil fuels such as coal. However, there is neither consensus on details of who pays and who benefits, nor on the definition of developed and developing nations.

Developing nations are disappointed by rich nations failing to mobilize 100 billion U.S. dollars a year for them by 2020, as they had promised at the Copenhagen climate change conference six years ago.

Meanwhile, developed nations insist on a framework to track how existing obligations are being met by developing countries before deciding to deliver or increase financial support.

"It's important for developing countries to keep the battle up on climate finance," WWF's head of delegation to COP21 Tasneem Essop told Xinhua in an exclusive interview.

"The draft agreement currently contains vague language on finance. Moreover, what is lacking is a goal or sense of predictability on finance for the post-2020 period. Developed countries can and should support developing countries with mitigation potential (scope to cut emissions)," she added.

"OPPORTUNITY" OF REVIEWS

Another major stumbling block is countries not agreeing on a process to periodically review and adjust their climate pledges, known as intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs).

The draft agreement includes more options for countries to improve their current climate pledges before 2020. This criterion is considered crucial by activists but contentious by developing countries for fear of being penalized if they are unable to meet their proposed targets.

However, Essop encouraged developing countries to see INDC reviews as "an opportunity."

"Developing countries should not feel fearful of a review. It's in their interest to have one as they stand to gain. When conditional INDCs come for review with regard to finance, mitigation and adaptation, they can be matched with necessary support from developed countries," she explained.

"Ultimately, the finance should be there to help meet the conditional INDCs so that developing nations can enhance their climate actions," Essop added.

In a similar vein, a specific target to curb global warming is conspicuous by its absence. Officials at COP21 have a matter of hours at best to decide to either put Earth on a path to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming or towards an almost-certainly-catastrophic 3 degrees Celsius world.

To avoid a weak, lowest-common-denominator outcome, observers said countries would need to revisit their current climate pledges before 2020, when any new agreement comes into force.

HELPING PUSH PAST THE FINISH LINE

So, how to push past the stalemates to reach consensus?

According to Samantha Smith, leader of WWF's Global Climate and Energy Initiative, while all camps have made remarkable progress, "everyone is going to have to do more as, unfortunately, we are in a climate crisis."

Developing countries are doing their fair share in terms of emissions reductions, she said.

China, for example, has pledged 3 billion U.S. dollars for South-South climate collaboration and has "done the world a favor by driving down the price of solar photovoltaic systems over the last five years."

"More of such actions from bigger developing countries with more capacity would be wonderful, but we're still waiting for developed countries to do their fair share," Smith said.

China may also hold a significant role in brokering the final deal.

China's recently reaffirmed pledge, made with the United States, on climate change mitigation and its domestic actions to curb emissions have helped build positive momentum in Paris, senior OECD climate policy analyst Jane Ellis told Xinhua.

"As a major player in three separate negotiation groups, namely G77/China, BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, China) and LMDC (Like-Minded Developing Countries), China has the power to bridge differences between these groups as well as between parties more broadly," Ellis said. Endit