Backgrounder: Denmark's referendum on EU justice, home affairs opt-out

Denmark is to hold a referendum on Thursday to decide whether or not it will replace its current opt-out of the EU's Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) rules with an opt-in model.

The perspective of Denmark having to leave Europol, the European cross-border crime agency, is the main reason behind Denmark's major political parties' agreement to vote on EU justice opt-out.

In a statement announcing the agreement, Denmark's five pro-Europe parties including the ruling Liberal party as well as the opposition Social Democrats party stressed that "Denmark should be as close to the core of the EU as possible."

"We are in agreement that Denmark's interests and values are best safeguarded through strong European cooperation," the statement said.

Data shows that the Danish police access Europol's criminal database Europol Information System (EIS) 10 times more than other EU member states, and the "yes" side believes that "it will be a serious problem for the safety and security of all Danes if Denmark is required to leave Europol."

If the referendum turns out positive, Denmark's continued participation in Europol will be ensured.

It will also immediately opt into 22 JHA legislative acts, of which seven concern criminal law and police cooperation and 15 pertain to civil, family, and commercial law.

Denmark's Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen encouraged the Danes to vote in favor of the referendum, emphasizing that the country will continue to make its own decisions on immigration policies.

A Danish "no" vote would mean that Denmark would not be able to influence policing and sentencing laws passed by the EU. Consequently, Denmark would be unable to participate in Europol.

The "no" side includes the far-left Red-Green Alliance, the Liberal Alliance as well as the Eurosceptic Danish People's Party, which wants Denmark to retain its legal exemption despite its support for Danish participation in Europol.

The Danish People's Party, the second largest party of Denmark, argued that the country risks losing control over its immigration policy, given the current refugee crisis facing the EU.

Though a majority of Danes were in favor of replacing the justice and home affairs opt-out when the referendum was announced, latest opinion polls have shown a dead heat as the "no" side continues to gain ground.

On Monday, a survey by Megafon put the "no" voters ahead of the "yes" voters for the first time by 40 percent against 35 percent.

Meanwhile, a Gallup poll found 38 percent would vote "no," while 34 percent would vote "yes."

The group of doubters has throughout the campaign been great, and there is still a big part of the Danes that have not yet decided.

"The Danes are far from convinced that the EU has brought peace and security in Europe. In the midst of refugees chaos and the euro crisis, politicians have neglected to talk about the meaning of the EU," Derek Beach, an associate professor of political science at the University of Aarhus, was cited as saying by Danish news agency Ritzau.

He added that today many Danes are fundamentally in doubt what the EU is.

According to Kaspar Moeller Hansen, who is an election expert and professor of political science at Copenhagen University, voter turnout in Thursday's referendum is expected to be very low by Danish standards.

"Voter turnout will certainly not reach the 87 percent, as it was during the euro referendum," Hansen said.

With the referendum looming, the prime minister on Wednesday went on a trip to the Region of Southern Denmark to campaign for a "yes" vote, while the Danish People's Party leader Kristian Thulesen Dahl would spend the final days of campaigning in Copenhagen convincing the voters to vote "no."

"It is almost the last chance to convince as many as possible that we must vote 'yes' to transform the Danish legal reservation into an opt-in model," Rasmussen said.

"There are many good reasons to vote 'yes,' but first and foremost we must ensure the continued membership of Europol," he noted.

It will be Denmark's second referendum regarding its four EU opt-outs, namely joint defence, judiciary cooperation, European citizenship, and the adoption of the euro, obtained from the 1992 Maastricht Treaty.

Denmark last held a referendum on its relationship with the EU in 2000, when voters rejected a proposal to replace the Danish krone with the euro.

The polling stations across Denmark will be opened from 9 am to 8 pm local time (0800 GMT to 1900 GMT), and the outcome is expected at around 11 pm. Endit