Roundup: Turks head for snap poll with little hope for change

Little is expected to change as Turkey is heading for a snap election on Sunday amid growing security and economic challenges facing the 78-million nation that straddles between Europe and Asia.

"The polling data does not signal any radical change in this election, although surprises may always occur," Idris Gursoy, Ankara-based political observer, told Xinhua.

"One way or another, Turkey needs to learn to live with coalition governments and the culture of compromise," he added.

In the last election in June, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a party that ruled the nation for the last 13 years, won the election but lost the power to form a single-party government. The coalition talks with the opposition parties in the aftermath had failed, prompting the president to call for a snap election.

Konda polling firm predicted that the AKP would get 42 percent in Sunday's election, a one percent increase that will not be enough to come to the power alone.

The main opposition Republican Peoples' Party (CHP) is expected to increase to 28 percent, three percentages points up from the June election.

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has lost two percentages while pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) kept roughly the same level of support in the survey.

POLLS AFTER POLLS?

"The four parties that will again be represented in the Parliament, if opinion surveys are correct, reflect four distinct identity blocks in Turkish society, increasingly entrenched, with a relatively small number of voters floating between them and casting their ballot according to circumstances or specific issues," Nicole Pope, an analyst in Istanbul, explained.

"This assessment suggests that bringing political parties, and the rest of society, together won't be an easy feat after Nov. 1," she underlined.

That raises the question of whether Turkey would be able to form a coalition government past this Sunday or forced to hold yet another election.

Amanda Paul, Brussels-based Turkey analyst, believed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will likely push for a third run if results would be the same.

"One thing is for sure, the uncertainly and instability that have gripped Turkey for months are not going to be ending any time soon," she stated.

RISING SECURITY RISKS

Although the results will likely be the same as it was in the June election, the political environment has drastically changed since June due to increased security threats and growing economic woes in the country.

The bombing attacks that claimed the lives of 102 people in the Turkish capital on October 10 sent alarm bells across the board in the political spectrum, prompting many people to stay away from campaign rallies.

The twin suicide terror attacks, the worst in the Turkish history, is blamed on Islamic State (IS) militants. The IS was also suspect in another suicide attack in July in the border town of Suruc that claimed the lives of 34 people.

Turkey has also been battling with the fresh violence mounted by the banned Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) since July. More than 150 members of the security services were killed in the conflict.

The PKK, listed as terrorist organization by Turkey, the European Union and the United States, has been waging a war with Turkish state since 1984.

ECONOMIC CHALLENGES ON THE RISE

Notwithstanding the type of government Turkey will have after the election, Turkish analysts expect it will have to deal with significant economic challenges.

"One of them is certainly the incapacity of the Central Bank of Turkey to curb the high inflation toward its targeted level of five percent," Seyfettin Gursel, economist, said.

"The central bank admits now that the year-end inflation rate would be between 7.4 and 8.4 percent, the median point being at 7.9 percent," he added.

Turkish central bank came under pressure for a rate hike in the face of rapid depreciation of Turkish lira yet the bank has resisted calls so far.

The Turkish lira has lost almost one-third of its value compared to the U.S. dollar this year alone. The lingering political instability, the slowdown on growth and possible expected rise in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates sent lira plummeting.

Turkey's economy grew by only 2.9 percent in 2014, and is expected to grow 2.9 percent in 2015, well below the government's 4 percent target.

Gursel believed harsh political pressure exerted by Erdogan led the loss of credibility for the central bank.

All political parties have been focusing on economic grievances by voters, proposing solutions to address them should they come to the power.

According to a media survey done by the Media Watch Center, political parties are attaching the most importance to economic pledges in their campaigns, appealing in particular to elderly citizens by offering higher pensions.

Most talked issue was a possible increase in pensions, followed the minimum wage, unemployment and economic growth.

Turkey's unemployment rate was recorded as 9.8 percent in July with the number of people looking for work reaching almost 3 million, according to the recent government data.

"The country's economic performance is getting worse, and people [are losing] their jobs. Small businesses are going out of business," Nesrin Nas, an economist, remarked.

She noted that the economic crisis is taking its toll on individuals, leading her to believe that the AKP's vote will not increase in this election.

The Turkish lira has lost almost one-third of its value compared to the U.S. dollar this year alone. The lingering political instability, the slowdown on growth and possible rise in US Federal Reserve interest rates sent lira plummeting. Endit