News Analysis: U.S. Republican candidate Ben Carson surges ahead on nice-guy image

In the United States, politics can change at lightning speed, and so it is that the soft-spoken, mild mannered candidate Ben Carson has knocked the bombastic billionaire Donald Trump out of the No. 1 spot in the race for the Republican Party (GOP) nomination.

Indeed, according to a CBS/New York Times poll released Tuesday, Carson has sped ahead of Trump with the support of 26 percent of GOP primary voters, against 22 percent for Trump.

While the poll is one of several, and the Real Clear Politics average of polls still has Trump in the lead by 4.8 percent, it does indicate that Trump's momentum may be running out, and that his nomination is far from guaranteed.

"Carson is a nicer version of Trump. He is less bellicose than the New York billionaire and less prone to insulting other people," Brookings Institution's senior fellow Darrell West told Xinhua.

Carson is boosting his popularity with groups including women, conservatives and evangelicals, and in an era in which many voters are fed up with Washington elites, Carson fits the bill well. Moreover, he comes off as good-hearted, which resonates with many voters.

"Though he certainly says his share of controversial things, he does so in a calm and understated manner," Julian E. Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, told Xinhua.

Carson's nice-guy demeanor notwithstanding, his campaign has taken a page out of the Democratic playbook, effectively utilizing social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter in a bid to earn fame.

"Carson has been effective on social media through his use of Facebook and Twitter. He connects well with grass roots activists and this is a great niche for him. Those are the people who will turn out in GOP primaries," West said.

Still, Carson needs to buckle down if he wishes to stay ahead of the game, and especially if he aims to beat Trump, who has surprised many analysts, experts and political prognosticators by leading the pack in a crowded field of talented candidates.

And now that Carson's in the spotlight, the public and media will eye him more closely.

"With Carson's strong poll numbers, he will undergo much deeper scrutiny. People will examine past statements he has made and see if there are problems in what he has said," West said.

Zelizer said it is unlikely that Carson can sustain his high poll numbers, as he lacks the same kind of financial and organizational strength that will be crucial when the time comes to actually vote.

Meanwhile, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, initially expected to be a shoo-in for the nomination and to face no significant opposition, is flagging in a struggle to gain media attention and stay relevant.

Despite being the son and brother of two former presidents, critics say he is boring and lacks an air of excitement around him. While he often discusses policies, American voters tend to gravitate more toward a candidate who appears to understand the struggles of ordinary Americans.

"Bush is struggling. His fundraising has slowed down considerably and he is not getting very good press," West said. "The air of inevitability that he had six months ago is completely gone."

"Bush will have to fight for the nomination but faces an uphill battle," he said.

Zelizer said Bush needs to "show more of himself to the public, put more energy into his candidacy, and give a sense of what his presidency would be about other than just being the frontrunner." Enditem