News Analysis: Finnish public opinion lags far behind Sweden in joining NATO

Attitudes towards a possible NATO membership seem to be going into divergent directions in the two militarily non-aligned countries in Northern Europe -- Finland and Sweden.

While a poll in Sweden in August showed that 41 percent of the population backed joining NATO, a fresh Finnish poll commissioned by national broadcaster Yle indicated 22 percent backed joining NATO and a 55 percent majority was against.

The number of Finnish backers went down by four percentage points from last year, but the share of undecided went up.

Finnish analysts have concluded the high turnout of undecided indicates that Finns are not certain about the way they should think of Russia.

At the level of political parties, in Sweden nearly all non-socialist parties back NATO membership, while in Finland the idea wins clear support only from the Conservatives.

Conservative Chairman of the Parliamentary Defense Committee Ilkka Kanerva told Yle that the situation is not balanced in Finland in the sense that those opposing NATO membership are vocal in public, while those supporting it are committed to the wording of the government program, which does not exclude filing a membership application but takes no explicit stand.

Kanerva said the majority of the Finns want to ponder carefully what the core national interests of Finland are. Kanerva pointed out that the share of undecided resembles the situation before the 1994 referendum on membership in the EU.

Centrist Member of Parliament Mikko Savola, also a member of the Defense Committee, said public discussion of the NATO issue is lacking at this time in Finland.

He said next year such debate is likely as the parliament will handle both a report on defense policy and one on specifically the issues related to NATO membership.

Yle journalist Johanna Vesikallio believed that even at the top of foreign policy leadership there is not necessarily a clear stand.

She noted that Foreign Minister Timo Soini has said in a recent interview with the Finnish Foreign Policy magazine that he does not know what his NATO view is.

The decline in outright support to Finnish NATO membership matches the results of YLE survey published on Tuesday about Finnish attitudes towards Russia. In the poll, 51 percent perceive Russia as a threat. A year ago the figure was 56 percent.

Also in this survey, the class "undecided" increased, and the number of Finns not seeing the eastern neighbor as a threat remained the same at 38 percent.

Researcher Hanna Smith of the Alexander Institute associated with the University of Helsinki said the increase in the number of undecided should be noted. She pointed out that anti-NATO attitudes had lost ground eight percentage points in two years.

When the opinion survey raised the question what the opinion would be if Sweden would go in, the camp of NATO supporters in Finland increased by six percentage points but would still be far behind the levels in Sweden.

Asked to weigh the consequences of various options, Smith said that in a situation where Sweden would go in and Finland not, Finland would remain a kind of buffer and the concept of some kind of "sphere of interest" would enter the picture.

Finland shares a long land border with Russia, while Sweden and Russia are separated by the sea.

Member of Parliament Mikko Savola said the non-aligned status of Finland and Sweden is a stabilizing factor in the area. "Finland will take decisions on its own premises," he said.

Member of Parliament Ilkka Kanerva said "the fates of Finland and Sweden" overlap. Endit