Disputed NASA study claims 99.9 percent chance of new earthquake in Los Angeles area

A new study of U.S. space agency NASA claimed there was a 99.9 percent chance that La Habra in Los Angeles area, California, will experience an earthquake of 5.0 magnitude or greater in the next two and half years.

The conclusion was given by researchers from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratories (JPL) in California. They made their prediction known in a paper published in the journal Earth and Space Science this week. The study has been said to be done by using GPS and airborne radar to measure stress in tectonic fault lines following the 5.1-magnitude quake in La Habra in March 2014.

But not all scientists are on board with the prediction. Seismologists at the U.S. Geological Survey questioned the methodology involved in the prediction. USGS' own studies put the probability of an earthquake in the same region at 85 percent within the next three years.

The USGS took the rare step of issuing a statement questioning the study, saying the study's forecast "has not yet been examined by the long-established committees that evaluate earthquake forecasts and predictions made by scientists."

"The earthquake rate implied by the 99.9 percent probability is significantly higher than observed at any time previously in Southern California, and the lack of details on the method of analysis makes a critical assessment of this approach very difficult. Therefore, the USGS does not consider the analysis presented in this paper a reason to change our assessment of the hazard," USGS said.

Scientists at the USGS are not the only ones who questioned the paper's results. Thomas Heaton, a seismologist at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) also cautioned against the earthquake prediction.

"While the authors are credible scientists, this paper does not meet my definition of science," said Heaton, who is also a professor of engineering seismology and director of the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory at Caltech, in an interview with the media. "As far as I'm concerned there has never been a successful earthquake prediction and a scientific breakthrough would be required for us to make a scientifically based prediction."

An earthquake of 5.0 magnitude is considered moderate but an event of that size in Los Angeles area could result in massive damage. The La Habra earthquake, for instance, caused an estimated 12 million U.S. dollars in damage. Another quake of 6.7-magnitude, which struck Northridge, also in Los Angeles area, in 1994, led to 25 billion U.S. dollars in damage, plus dozens of deaths and 9,000 injuries. Endit