News Analysis: Prospects for lasting peace in E. Ukraine remain uncertain despite halt of hostilities

Guns fell almost silent across the entire frontline in eastern Ukraine in September for the first time since the start of the conflict in April 2014 after government forces and independence-seeking insurgents declared a complete ceasefire.

Although the current truce is seen by many Ukrainian analysts as a basis to secure a lasting peace in the restive region, some experts cautioned that the lull in violence does not guarantee an end to the conflict.

UNEXPECTED LULL IN FIGHTING

After the confronting sides in eastern Ukraine announced a fresh truce in the beginning of September, very few in Ukraine believed that it would be observed because the previous ceasefires had been short-lived.

While earlier the truce regimes were collapsing soon after being declared as Ukrainian troops and rebels carried out regular attacks against each other, blaming another side for violations, currently both parties reported a drastic decline in the intensity of fighting.

Formally, the sides claimed that the current ceasefire is aimed at ensuring security of children at the start of the new school year, but analysts doubt that it is the real reason behind the lasting lull in fighting.

Among the possible motives for the truce, some analysts listed Kiev and rebel anticipation of international talks on Ukraine's crisis in Normandy format, preparation for regional elections and some "secret agreements" between the sides.

However, the majority of experts believe that the Ukrainian parliament's move to approve in the first reading constitutional amendments, which would give more autonomy to rebel-controlled territories, is a real reason why the ceasefire is being observed.

"I think that the parliament's vote on constitutional amendments on decentralization in the first reading has really contributed to the ceasefire," said Valentyn Gladkykh, a political analyst at the Kiev-based think-tank "Leviathan".

He was echoed by another expert -- Anatoly Oktisyuk, a senior analyst at the International Centre for Political Studies, who said that insurgents hope that the halt of hostilities will push Kiev to give them a special status within Ukraine, thus legalizing the rule of rebel leadership.

"In general, the further development of the situation in the Donbas region will depend on the decisions adopted by the parliament in the near future," Oktisyuk said.

FROZEN CONFLICT OPTION

Marking the one-month milestone, the fragile truce in eastern Ukraine brought some respite to the conflict-torn region -- reconstruction works began at many industrial and municipal infrastructure facilities, while some displaced persons start returning to their homes.

It is not clear how long the new ceasefire will last, but some experts are optimistic over its prospects because the current calm period is advantageous to both sides of the conflict.

The Ukrainian authorities may use the ceasefire as a political trump card to improve their positions in the run-up to the regional elections, slated for Oct. 25, while insurgents may get some breathing room to prepare their communal infrastructure, which was badly damaged by the hostilities, to the upcoming winter.

In addition, both sides that used most of resources at their disposal in the 17 months of confrontation, look really tired from the warfare.

"There is a tendency that the vector of development of the situation in the Donbas is now on the way to reduction of casualties and shelling. I have no doubts that such tendency will last, but it is unclear how long it will last -- years, decades or even more time," said Roman Bezsmertny, Kiev representative in the political subgroup of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine crisis.

His comments reflect a widespread view that the confrontation in eastern Ukraine had overcome the acute phase and is now entering the stage of a protracted frozen conflict, which provides for cessation of hostilities, envisaging, however, no clear plan on resolving the situation.

"Freezing of the conflict is not the worst option for Ukraine. It means that the shooting has stopped, people do not die, cross-border movement of people has been restored and logistic centers are created. We have a pause for development and we could return to the final resolution of the conflict later," said Taras Chornovil, former Ukrainian lawmaker and international relations expert.

STUMBLING BLOCKS FOR PEACE

Although not many Ukrainians are enthusiastic about the prospect of the frozen conflict in their country, most people prefer a "bad peace" to "good war". However, some political forces in Ukraine do not share such opinion.

Nationalist political parties, which strongly oppose giving greater powers to rebels in eastern Ukraine, claiming it undermines the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, are threatening to block the parliament's final vote on constitutional amendments on decentralization.

Some experts believe that if the parliament fails to finally approve the bill, which is one of the main provisions of the Minsk peace deal designed to end the conflict, it could provoke a new wave of violence.

"The failure to adopt the law on decentralization would have an obvious consequence -- another round of military confrontation in eastern regions," said an independent analyst Vladislav Starinetz.

There is another stumbling block on the path to the lasting truce in eastern Ukraine. It is a rebel decision to hold local election in the territories under their control, which Kiev has denounced as an "illegal vote" and a "threat to Minsk peace process."

Some experts believe that hostilities in eastern Ukraine may resume immediately after the elections in Donetsk and Lugansk, which are slated for Oct. 18 and Nov. 1 respectively.

"There is a high probability of escalation after the elections planned by rebels. Last year, after the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk republics held their elections, the gradual escalation of the conflict started," said Vladimir Fesenko, director of the Penta Center of Applied Political Studies. Endit