News Analysis: Russia's military build-up in Syria reinvigorates political solution

The upped Russian military support and presence in Syria will likely increase chances of the political solution for the country's long-running conflict, analysts said.

The Russian leadership has recently amplified its military aid to the Syrian military forces. Russian officials have recently stressed that Moscow will continue providing military aid, including specialists, to Damascus.

Russian officials said the increasing military supplies aim at combating terrorism in accordance with international law.

Military experts say the Russian supplies will for sure have a notable effect on the battles in Syria amid activists' reports that the Syrian air force have already started using newly-received Russian war jets.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based watchdog group, said the Syrian air force started flying new warplanes to strike positions of the Islamic State (IS) militants near a besieged airfield in Aleppo province in northern Syria.

The pan-Arab al-Mayadeen also said the Syrian military started using the Russian weapons, adding that "the new weaponry sent by Russia are of high and precise efficiency and the Syrian army has started getting trained to use them."

Analysts say the presence of the Russian war jets and radars will hinder any Turkish plan to impose a buffer zone in northern Syria. It will also make Israel think twice before sending its war jets to strikes Syrian targets as it had repeatedly done in recent months.

Politically, analysts say the Russian build-up will also increase chances of a political solution and will end the U.S. unilateral sway in the region.

"Most certainly, the Russian presence will enhance chances of the political solutions in the region, because it restores the political balance to the region, which has suffered from the weight of the U.S. player who was playing alone with no competitor," Maher Ihsan, a political analyst, told Xinhua.

He added that "just days after the Russian military presence was upped, we have started witnessing an obvious shift in the international stances towards the crisis in Syria, more specifically about the future of President Bashar al-Assad."

The change in the international stance was reflected by the recent comments made by several Western leaders, who previously demanded the departure of Assad, but said now that Assad could be a part of the solution.

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop recently said that "the reality is President Assad is still in Syria, the reality is Russia is backing President Assad. Russia's involvement (in negotiations with Iran over their nuclear program) has been said to be very positive by all of those negotiating that agreement.

"If we use that as an example of Russia's preparedness to be part of a solution rather than part of the problem, then we can have some optimism that Russia's involvement is positive," he said.

In another statement that was considered "groundbreaking," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said al-Assad should be part of negotiations with the West.

"We have to speak with many actors, this includes Assad, but others as well," she said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has probably been more critic of Assad than Syrian oppositions, said recently that "a transition process" in Syria involving al-Assad "is possible."

"The process could possibly be without Assad, or the transitional process could be with him," he said.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry also indicated that while "Assad has to go," the "modality" and "timing" of his departure were a matter for discussion.

"We're prepared to negotiate. Is Assad prepared to negotiate, really negotiate? Is Russia prepared to bring him to the table?" he stated.

Explaining the shift in the U.S. stance, Osama Danura, a Syrian political analyst, said that "the U.S. wild cards in the region are diminishing... the U.S. cannot send troops on ground for many reasons but on the contrary the Russians are increasing their military build-up."

Osama said that the U.S. regional allies are also not in their best shape. Saudi Arabia is drowned in its war on Yemen and Turkey is also struggling with its internal issues, like the elections and the Kurds. "the time now is the best for Russia to step in and solve the situation by its own rules," he said.

Sharif Shehadeh, a Syrian legislator, said that "the United States have finally realized that what is happening in Syria is not a revolution but groups of terrorist groups coming to the region to plan foreign schemes."

"The United States realized the threat of terrorism, and that's why it handed over solving the Syrian crisis to the Russians, especially after the failure of the U.S.-led anti-terror coalition, whose 6,000 airstrikes on the IS positions in Syria, have so far done nothing to stem the momentum of this terror group," he said.

The Lebanese Assafir newspaper said the increased Russian presence in Syria provides the suitable ground for Moscow to negotiate the Syrian crisis with Washington and enables Russia to preserve a long-lasting foothold on the Mediterranean, where it already has a naval base in the Syrian coastal city of Tartus.

It added that the Syrian regime will be more comfortable when entering the political negotiations after the Russian involvement, because that will grant the Syrian regime firm control over its favorite areas. These areas constitutes of areas that are still under the firm control of the government, stretching from the coast to Damascus through Homs and Hama.

In the short run, the Russian step has eliminated the possibility of toppling the Assad regime, the paper added.

Bashar Jaafari, Syria's permanent representative to the UN, told the pan-Arab al-Mayadeen TV that Russia will further increase the engagement and military support to Syria "because Russia has also sensed that the Western failure in fighting the IS will have negative repercussion on Russia as the terror group will threat Russia as well."

Also, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Lebanese Hezbollah group which is fighting alongside the Syrian army on several fronts, said in an interview that "the military situation in Syria will improve in favor of the Syrian regime, not the other party (rebels). This will reinforce and enhance the chances of the political solution."

"The internal Syrian readiness for dialogue and reaching a political solution is very high. The ones who were hindering that were the foreign countries...but when their stances are starting to change, the chances of the political solution are increasing," Nasrallah said. Endit