News Analysis: Clock ticks down as freshly-stalled TPP talks move into 11th hour for Japan, other countries

The ambitious U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks aimed at creating an unprecedented free trade zone around the Pacific Rim between its 12 member countries, which could see the new economic area responsible for 40 percent of the world's global output, stalled for the umpteenth time at the conclusion of a weekend ministerial meeting in Hawaii.

With the ultimate conclusion of the talks already embarrassingly delayed due to ongoing wrangling, TPP negotiators and finance ministers are still unable to break the deadlocks of some countries which, while expecting other countries to ax tariffs on their products, are desperately trying to protect their own special industries and have tried to exempt certain goods and products from the deal and creating logjams in the process. Analysts believe that a final deal between the TPP-member countries could end up being scrapped or reformatted.

The official line from the last two meetings that also ended in talks being stalled and a fundamental agreement between the member nations not being reached, as was the case at the end of the latest four-day talks on the Hawaiian island of Maui where a conclusion was all but promised by ministers and leaders prior to the talks that a comprehensive deal would be struck, has been that "significant progress has been made."

The official statement issued by the TPP ministers, this year as with those at the end of other rounds of stalled talks read: " The TPP countries will continue work on resolving a limited number of remaining issues," seemingly downplaying the fact that the gulfs between some countries are immense and the issues at play so fundamental, they can barely be put on the negotiation table.

For Japan's part, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Akira Amari, as with other chief negotiators, told reporters that it would take one more round of talks to thrash out the nitty-gritty of remaining obstacles between countries, with this so-say final meeting earmarked for the end of this month.

But as political watchers have pointed out, the final round of talks has to take place by the end of this month, as the U.S. political calendar cannot cater to another round of talks later in the year as the run up to the presidential election in 2016 will swing into gear earnestly.

Concluding a final deal in the politically perilous 2016 U.S. presidential election year is widely seen as difficult. The schedule for the final TPP deal is already tight, said Amari, while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe maintained his mantra that Japan will "continue to do its utmost until negotiations eventually conclude."

"In all likelihood, Amari is playing down the ongoing divide between some countries and is towing the line of moderate diplomacy, by stating that progress had been made at the talks and generally giving the public an impression that with each round of talks, steps forward are being taken and this remarkable free trade economic hub is close to being created, which could help comprehensively kickstart Japan's sluggish economy," political commentator and Shizuoka-based author Philip McNeil told Xinhua.

"But the reality of the situation is likely somewhat different. Because of the U.S. political calendar the round of talks concluded Friday were supposed to be, without question, the scene of the conclusion and the pact being agreed upon, but the talks ended the same way as each round of talks have ended before, with mistrust, anger, divided ideology and new hurdles in the form of goods and now currency that have to be over come," McNeil said.

"Each round of talks unearths a new set of problems between countries, and while Amari may've seemed quite upbeat in comments he made to the press after the talks, other ministers perhaps provided the truth of the situation, with Malaysian trade minister Mustapa Mohamed stating in no uncertain terms that there are still a number of remaining issues and achieving a universal consensus would continue to be tough," he added.

With U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman saying that no date has been set for the talks which need to take place imminently before the U.S. kicks off its election bonanza, and with derailed talks on pause between some of the 12 member countries, some analysts believe that either the talks will have to be suspended till well after August -- meaning they might not come to fruition during U.S. President Barack Obama's time in office -- or will be scrapped all together in favor of countries forging their own bilateral and multilateral FTA deals in lieu of one big tax free system in the Pacific Rim zone.

While Froman on the one hand said that the gap on intellectual property rights, one of the major sticking points for the negotiations has been closed, Amari was quoted as saying otherwise, stating that the issue of intellectual property has, in fact, not been worked out yet, "due to growing differences among each nation, " and hence more time would be needed.

But both Froman and Amari were in agreement that the issue of certain countries' dairy products were among those of weight, which ensured the talks could not be concluded this time around.

Officials at the meetings largely agreed that it was Canada this time who was refusing to kowtow to the United States and New Zealand to open up its highly protected dairy sector, while the United States itself was under pressure from both Canada and Australia to permit more sugar imports into the country.

But according to Amari, there was one country that was "making extortionate demands" in market access negotiations which concern tariffs, with his remarks being levied directly at New Zealand demanding greater access to dairy markets in countries such as Canada, Japan and Mexico.

New Zealand, a leading exporter of whey protein, cheese and milk powder, warned that it wouldn't embrace a deal that didn't break open this highly protected sector, but Canadian officials were applauded by their lobbies for standing firm on the issue, sources close to the talks said.

"Whereas in previous talks, Japan and the U.S., as the two biggest economies involved in the pact, were often the cause of the biggest logjams, it would seem that they have indeed made some good progress in the former prickly areas of liberalizing Japan's traditionally protected agricultural market and auto tariffs," McNeil said.

But while ostensibly progress may have been made in Hawaii, Amari, much like his Canadian counterpart, needs to convince the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives - a highly conservative and very powerful lobby which has already received certain assurances from Abe that the sector will be protected - a prospect that will undoubtedly spark a huge backlash and threaten to take a sizable chunk out of Abe's support base, something the unpopular prime minister will want to avoid in these sensitive days and months ahead.

Indeed, Akira Banzai, president of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives, has time and again called for protecting the country's farm product categories seen as "off- limits" for the eliminating of import tariffs, including rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy and sugar.

Banzai said his lobby will collectively insist that the government follow its own Diet resolutions adopted in April 2013 to protect the key farm products.

Further at issue for Japan is its plans to fully integrate the Asian supply networks of its automotive makers such as Toyota Motor Corp. into the framework to create what Amari has described as "a huge value chain."

Such a push this time around, drew the ire of Mexico, which is the fourth-largest auto exporter in the world owing to colossal investments from worldwide manufacturers, leading to its economy secretary, Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal, declaring that he would stand up for the rights of his country, even in the face of bigger or so-say, more experienced economies.

"While Amari and other ministers may have seemed upbeat after the latest round of talks - albeit in front of the press - the intricate details are starting to surface and the cracks between the countries regarding this pact are larger than the ministers are letting on and many experts don't believe they can be fixed in another single round of talks," McNeil said.

"For Japan in particular the problems are myriad and not just concerned with its agricultural sector; its automotive sector is also in the spotlight now due to a newly-invigorated Mexican market, intellectual property debates are pervasive and remain unsettled, and Japan has been accused during the latest round of talks of pegging its currency rate low to create an unfair advantage for its own exports." Endi