News Analysis: Yemeni crisis mirrors regional unrest in Middle East

The ongoing crisis in conflict-stricken Yemen is reflection of a regional unrest in the Middle East, especially after the forces of fleeing President Abd-Rabbo Mansour Hadi seized strategic southern city of Aden against Shiite Houthi fighters, said Egyptian experts.

Yemen has become more like a battlefield for regional and even international powers that seek more influence in the Middle East region through the ongoing conflict hitting the country, including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

U.S. INTERESTS

"Yemen has always been a place of interest for the United States, and former U.S. President Clinton said openly that Yemen is a matter of a national security for the United States," said Gehad Auda, professor of international relations at Helwan University.

The professor told Xinhua that Yemen is highly located due to its control of Bab al-Mandeb Strait that connects between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden as well as between the continents of Asia and Africa, "therefore it is a very critical area geopolitically and geostrategically."

Being responsible for guaranteeing the security of its Gulf allies, the United States must have helped with the seizure of Yemen at the hands of pro-Hadi forces to reassure Saudi Arabia and other Gulf partners about their national security, according to the expert.

SAUDI ARABIA VS IRAN

Unhappy with the recently-reached nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers led by the United States, Sunni Saudi Arabia is obviously concerned about greater influence of Shiite Iran in the region and about Iranian attempts to turn Yemen into a Shiite state, given that the Iran-backed Houthi fighters are Shiites.

Although the deal is expected to strengthen Iran's influence in the region, experts believe that it will take a few years until Iranian regional expansion can be strongly felt after the deal.

Yemen is considered the southern gate for oil-rich Saudi Arabia, so order in Yemen is a matter of national security for the kingdom in particular and for the whole Gulf region in general.

Thus, Saudi Arabia is currently leading an Arab coalition that has been launching airstrikes against the Houthi fighters in favor of Yemeni President Hadi, who fled and sought refuge in Riyadh.

SEIZURE OF ADEN

"Yemen has always been important to Saudi Arabia as it is regarded as a backyard for the kingdom," professor Auda told Xinhua, stressing that Saudi Arabia's help in pro-Hadi forces' control of Yemen marks "new balance" in the war-torn country.

The seizure of Yemen by Hadi's forces is seen as the light at the end of the tunnel for the return of the Yemeni regime after the retreat of the Houthi fighters in the vital city and the full control of Hadi's government in the southern strategic spot.

"Pro-Hadi forces are now in full control of Aden and other southern strategic areas, which shows decline of Houthi forces in strategic areas as a new reality," Tarek Fahmy, political science professor and expert at the National Center for Middle East Studies, told Xinhua.

He added that 90 percent of the government institutions have returned in Aden, including ministries and authorities, expressing his belief that the presence of the Houthi forces is getting weaker through the support of the Saudi-led Arab military coalition.

DIVISION SCENARIO

"The scenario of Yemen's division into south and north has been there since the beginning of the crisis, but this scenario does not satisfy Saudi Arabia as it will be a thorn in the back of the kingdom for which the Houthis represent the project of a Shiite Yemen," said Nourhan al-Sheikh, professor of political sciences at Cairo University.

She said that the division of Yemen could be a "de facto" development that might be later imposed on the ground, yet the Riyadh-led coalition would then treat the Houthis in the north as rebels that must be eliminated.

"Saudi Arabia is the most concerned Arab country about the Yemeni crisis," the professor told Xinhua, "so the kingdom would not accept Yemen's division and would always look at the Houthis as outlaws whose presence in the north is illegitimate."

TERROR EXPANSION

According to many experts, turmoil and terrorism are two faces of the same coin, as chaos is an ideal environment for the growth of extremist groups that would find easier ways for their finance and weapons in a turmoil-stricken country.

"Political vacancy is an ideal environment for extremist groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaida," the expert warned, noting that when the Yemeni regime returns and retains its strength, such groups always go back to their hiding places.

"The more a state's grasp is weak, the more extremist groups flourish and become stronger," professor Sheikh said, noting that al-Qaida militant group has been in Yemen for several years but disorder refreshed it, the same as happened in Syria, Iraq and Libya.

The professor said there is "hope" that such groups diminish when Hadi's regime fully returns and take over power, raiding extremists' hideouts, limiting their activities, preventing their source of finance and stopping their weapon provision. Endit