News Analysis: Iran nuclear deal affects regional political landscape

The nuclear deal reached Tuesday between Iran and the world powers is likely to change the political map in the Middle East, said Egyptian experts.

After a long road of negotiations, Iran and six world powers, including the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, reached in Vienna on Tuesday an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear ability in return for lifting international sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic for its nuclear program.

"The Iranian nuclear deal will surely change the political map not only in the Middle East region but also in the total blocs and alliances in the world in general," said Mohamed Mohsen Abdel-Nour, researcher of Iranian affairs at Cairo-based Al-Azhar University, noting that the regional states may have to change their foreign policies according to the new developments.

The expert told Xinhua that the new developments include the expected harm that may hit the economies of Middle East oil-producing states amid the expected Iranian oil flood in the market after the sanctions are relieved.

In response to the deal, the Egypt Foreign Ministry expressed hope Tuesday that the agreement would lead the Middle East region to security and stability, stop the eruption of an armament race in the region and free it from weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear ones.

"With regards to Egypt as oil-importing country that suffers a budget deficit, the deal might also be in its favor, yet side by side with some strategic harm," Abdel-Nour told Xinhua, explaining that the expected post-deal Iranian oil floods in the market will lead to lower oil prices to be less than 50 U.S. dollars for one barrel.

"Here Egypt can find a reasonable amount of oil for its market needs at least for the coming two years," he pointed out, expecting the deal to lead to an armament race since Iran has been acknowledged as a nuclear power and allowed to maintain full capacity work of 6,500 centrifuges even if for peaceful purposes.

While the long-awaited, newly-reached agreement is hailed by Iran and the United States as a historical accomplishment, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to it as a "historic mistake."

"The deal is certainly a step forward," said Saeed al-Lawindi, political researcher of international relations at Cairo-based Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, arguing that after 12 years of negotiations the West found that a deal with Iran will be in their favor provided that Iran's nuclear ability will be restricted to peaceful use.

"Israel is bothered by the deal because Israel wants to be the only state in the Middle East region that possesses nuclear power," Lawindi told Xinhua, adding that Israel is completely against the agreement as it sees the Persian state as a permanent regional threat.

Arab states, particularly those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), are suspicious about Iran and its regional ambitions and therefore they are not enthusiastic about the deal.

However, Lawindi recommends that Arab states should rather look at Iran as an Islamic and Middle Eastern state that will add to their strength if it owns a nuclear capability.

"The West wants to maintain tense between Arab states and Iran so that Arabs fight with Iran on behalf of the United States and Israel," he added.

The deal is seen by many experts as completely in favor of Iran, and that is why the news has been extremely welcomed among the Iranians who have been overjoyed by the deal.

"Iran always demanded during the talks to have the sanctions 'immediately' lifted after the deal is reached, but the United States wanted to lift them 'gradually.' This is why the deal is a kind of victory for Iran and I believe it is in favor of all Arab and Islamic states in general," Lawindi told Xinhua.

In February, Egypt announced it will build a nuclear power station in Dabaa city in coastal Matrouh province with the help of Russia. The announcement came after talks between Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Cairo.

"Egypt also seeks to own a nuclear power through the intended establishment of a nuclear plant in Dabaa. So, I believe there should be common interests and a kind of partnership and cooperation in the nuclear field between Egypt and Iran," Al-Aharm Center expert recommended.

Sisi's leadership is a loyal supporter of GCC states that helped Egypt's economy with billions of dollars following the overthrow of former Islamist President Mohamed Morsi by the military in July 2013.

The situation in Iran was very sophisticated because the process of decision making in the country is severally diversified, and the negotiations over the Iranian deal has united the lines of rival parties in Iran and strengthened the position of the government.

"The current integration among Iranian different factions will give Iran regional and international gains, by which Iran could blackmail the GCC States and of course its main ally Egypt, which would never risk its interests with the Gulf States for the sake of improving ties with Iran," Mohamed Ibrahim Shaker, head of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, told Xinhua.

The ex-diplomat noted that Egypt does not mind Iran's possession of nuclear projects as long as it is peaceful, yet the most populous Arab country is worried that Iran might eventually develop its nuclear projects and plants into nuclear weapons.

The ties between Egypt and Iran were cut off after Iran's Islamic Revolution and Egypt's peace treaty with Israel in 1979. The two sides started to get closer after the 2011 unrest that toppled Egypt's former leader Hosni Mubarak but tense rose again after Morsi's overthrow.

According to Shaker, Iran studies the situation in the Middle East very carefully and understands that its approach with the West will guarantee its stability and control in the region.

"However, despite Egypt's interests with the West, Egypt would not improve its ties with Iran at the expense of its interests with the GCC States, and Egypt will also attempt to make a balance in its ties with the West without sacrificing those with Gulf States," the ex-ambassador told Xinhua.

Former Egyptian vice-president Mohamed ElBaradei and former chief of International Atomic Energy Agency (IETA) hailed on Tuesday the nuclear deal between Iran and the group of six world powers as a beginning for an end of decades of hostility, warmongering and human suffering in the Middle East.

"Salute U.S. and Iran leaderships for courage and vision. Hope deal is harbinger of peace and stability in an imploding Middle East," ElBaradei posted. Endit