News analysis: Renzi taking on risky confidence vote that could pay dividends, if he survives

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's decision to pass his controversial electoral reform plan through a series of risky confidence votes could serve a dual purpose, according to experts.

But first it must succeed.

Renzi announced this week he would employ the high-risk strategy in order to pass his electoral reform plan, which would make it easier for the political party earning the most votes to have a stable governing majority. The plan has divided Renzi's even own political party, with many of its members critical of the prime minister's actions.

"A government cannot hold a confidence vote on democracy," said Pier Luigi Bersani, a former leader of Renzi's party and a one-time prime minister hopeful.

Opposition figures went even further, with one leading critic, Renato Brunetta, calling the move "Renzi fascism" and another, Fabiana Dadone, comparing Renzi to Benito Mussolini, Italy's former fascist dictator. A smaller opposition party even brought flowers onto the floor of parliament, saying they were brought to pay tribute to the "funeral of democracy" in Italy.

"A lot of it is high theatre, but it is clear there is strong opposition to Renzi's plans," Gian Franco Gallo, a political affairs analyst with Hildebrandt and Ferrar in Milan, told Xinhua. "But backing down is not an alternative for Renzi."

The solution is a confidence vote, which in his case means legislators must vote both for the reform and the Renzi government in three separate votes. If he garners a majority of the votes cast, the reform passes and his government survives to fight another day. But if it fails, the reform measure would die and Renzi would be forced to tender his resignation.

That would lead to new elections, which Renzi would in all likelihood win. But according to Alessandro Campi, a history and politics expert with the University of Perugia, that would still be a big blow to Renzi.

"He would almost surely stay in power, but I think it would pollute his image and make it much easier to challenge him in the future," Campi said in an interview.

The Italian media is reporting that most members of Renzi's party who oppose him on the political reform plan would most likely abstain from voting rather than voting to make the leader of their own party resign. That would probably be enough to ensure Renzi survives the vote, since he only needs support from a majority of the votes cast, not a majority of all parliamentarians.

If that is indeed the case, Campi said the confidence vote might hold a dual purpose. "By holding this vote, Renzi hopes he'll get the measure passed and he'll also silent what has become a very vocal opposition," Campi said. Endit