News analysis: Japan's codependent defense ties to deepen as U.S. focuses on Asia, but Abe must play ball

Talks between the Japanese and U.S. defense chiefs concluded with both parties agreeing to expedite the updating of bilateral defense cooperation guidelines ahead of so-called two-plus-two ministerial security talks later this month, and while the specifics on the guidelines remain somewhat indistinct the U.S.'s "rebalancing" plans in the Asia-Pacific region are starting to take shape.

At a joint press conference in Tokyo Wednesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani agreed that the new bilateral defense guidelines would function to expand opportunities for both countries' forces to "seamless cooperate."

Carter opined that the guidelines being worked on between the two allies would help to enhance bilateral security ties and bolster the broader Japan-U.S. alliance. Being that the guidelines have not been revamped since 1997, Nakatani, for his part, highlighted the fact that both cooperation in space and cyberspace would also be reflected in the new guidelines.

"It appears that the United States is beginning to gear up for its long-talked about rebalancing plans in the Asia-Pacific region as it has consistently maintained, attaches a great deal of importance to the region," pacific affairs research analyst, Laurent Sinclair, told Xinhua, referring to a recent editorial on the U.S. Department of Defense's website.

"But the United States is doing more, he (Carter) added. The newest and most capable weapons systems will go first to the (Asia- Pacific) region. When movements are completed, 60 percent of the U. S. fleet will be in the Pacific-Indian Ocean area. U.S. Marines already have a rotational presence in Australia, Carter said, and U.S. and Filipino authorities are working on ways to strengthen military-to-military cooperation.." Sinclair quoted the editorial as saying of the U.S.'s future moves in this region.

"But while the old guidelines outlining the roles of Japan's Self Defense Forces (SDF) and those of the United States, in the event of a 'contingency,' clearly need updating as, particularly for Japan, its defensive role and its once pacifist stance have drastically shifted, questions are being asked about the U.S.'s reaction to Japan's skirting of its constitution to ramp up the role of the SDF at home and abroad and, more particularly, the backdrop of militarism that is rising in the government and hence the country," Sinclair said.

Sinclair, also an expert on modern Asia's defense matters, proffered that the United States has found itself in something of a tough spot in recent years as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a handful of like-minded rightwing ministers have taken it upon themselves to unilaterally try to change the status quo in the region by reinterpreting Japan's pacifist constitution, with legislative changes to be made to free up the SDF to take on the role of a bone fide military.

While for Abe, such a move towards military recasting has always been on the cards and has been a methodical, albeit heavy- handed political process, it, according to Sinclair, has taken some powers in the West, like the U.S., by surprise.

"It's been a whirlwind of Abe choosing and ratifying a host of what may have at the time appeared to the layman and certainly the Japanese public as seemingly disparate military-related components, but when put together have essentially reversed Japan's pacifist ideology and seen the military bolstered by way of record spending and a diminished constitution, that will now see Japan's forces play a more active role at home and overseas," Sinclair said, adding that he doubted the U.S. anticipated all of this happening so quickly.

"On the one hand this is a plus for the United States as Japan, and its bases here, particularly in Okinawa Prefecture, have served as a de facto military for the U.S. in this region and has made sense economically as Japan shoulders a lot of the cost of hosting U.S. forces here," he said.

"The more Japan can aid the United States, in terms of personnel and hardware, the better off the United States is and in terms of international incidents, Japan exercising the right to collective self defense and coming to the aid of the United States if such a contingency presented itself, is also a plus for the United States," Sinclair said, adding that Japan's new hardware like the 24,000-ton, 250-meter long Izumo aircraft carrier, which is capable of carrying up to nine helicopters, launching Ospreys, and possibly the U.S.'s vertical, or short-take-off-and-landing versions of its F-35 multirole stealth fighter, probably got the nod from the United States as it will, in theory, expand Japan's reach to aid the United States.

"But the downside is that the U.S. allowing Japan to flex its military muscles for its own means, comes with a lot of bravado and saber rattling from Japan, which is connected to its current administration's ultra-right wing leanings and Abe and his ministers' affiliations to a group that wishes to revert to Japan' s wartime imperialism and this is a big drawback that is difficult for the U.S. to legislate for.

The fallout from this is that such an attitude really upsets and provokes Japan's neighbors who suffered from Japan's militarism during the war and they can see Japan, once again, moving down the same militaristic path, said Sinclair.

When current territorial disputes become entangled with issues of unresolved history and the very real possibility of Japan fully remilitarizing, observers have said that it is no surprise that there is tension in the region and this has unwittingly drawn the U.S.'s attention to the region, although the last thing Washington wants is to become ensnared in any kind of conflict in this region, as President Barack Obama himself has attested, along with a number of prominent U.S. defense analysts.

"In some respects, the United States and Japan are in a codependent relationship and this is and will be perfectly healthy as long as Japan can keep its end of the bargain. Washington, I believe, during Abe's upcoming visit to the U.S. will make it very clear to the prime minister that if Japan wants to be reinstated with more international responsibilities, it will have to rein in the very ideologies and behaviors that led to its wartime obliteration, and Abe himself will have to play ball," Asian affairs analyst Kaoru Imori told Xinhua.

Imori also said that it was probably a positive that Carter maintained the U.S.'s stance Wednesday that that the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, currently located in the densely populated region of Ginowan on the main island of Naha in Okinawa Prefecture, be relocated to the coastal region of Henoko, also on Okinawa island, as despite local opposition, the move is actually part of a plan to realign U.S. troops in Japan and, ultimately, relieve local Japanese peoples' base-hosting burdens, although these are still acutely felt in Okinawa.

"It's a positive because it will force the central government to do more to gain the understanding of local officials and citizens in Okinawa. This has always been Washington's proviso and this is why the issue has become stalled and is constantly vexing Washington. The central government's bulldozing tactics don't work in Okinawa and so they will have to take a more human-focused approach to resolving the issue," Imori said. Endi