China Exclusive: Interview with Elon Musk: Where will we be in 10 years?

Elon Musk, the U.S.-based entrepreneur, has said the next decade would see a "dramatic increase" in artificial intelligence (AI), most forms of cancer cured and, possibly, the first human mission to Mars.

Musk, CEO of private rocket firm SpaceX and electric car producer Tesla Motors, hopes the next ten years will also see more electric vehicles on the road, and a surge in the production and consumption of sustainable energy, he told Xinhua.

An advocate of space exploration and electric transportation, Musk has attained recognition for his unprecedented achievements in both industries.

SpaceX was the first private company to successfully send a spacecraft to the International Space Station and has contracts with U.S. space agency NASA, while Tesla Motors produces electric vehicles that boast the performance of sports cars.

PRIVATE MANNED SPACE FLIGHT

Musk explained that SpaceX aims to send its first manned craft into space in the next two years, adding that this year would see "a lot of interesting tests" with Version 2 of the Dragon spacecraft, which would help it with the precision of a helicopter.

Technology, he said, is important to extend life beyond Earth to avoid extinction. He predicted a human mission to Mars could be as early as 2025.

"My guess is that [it will probably take] 10 years to send the first manned mission," he said.

SpaceX is close to achieving a precise soft landing with rocket boosters, he said. If successful, this would be a significant step toward making rockets reusable, thus, reducing the cost of space travel and making settlement on Mars more attainable.

Currently, rockets are just detached and allowed to fall back to Earth. A reusable rocket system could slash the cost of space transportation by a factor of 100.

The company's Falcon 9 rocket landed on a floating ocean platform earlier this year but the rocket landed hard and exploded.

However, a number of separate short takeoff-and-landing tests have been successful, according to Musk.

"We just need to fit the pieces of the puzzle together [...] I'm hopeful that we'll achieve that later this year." he said.

POTENTIAL THREAT OF AI

Musk believes AI will have a profound effect on the future, however, he is realistic that intelligent machines may also pose risk.

"We will see dramatic increases in the manifestations of AI [in the next decade]," Musk said.

His car company Tesla Motors is working on a full autopilot system that could be developed in three years, while highway autopilot is coming in a few weeks.

Within the next decade, fully autonomous cars will become safer than human driving by far, Musk said.

However, he drew a distinction between self-driving cars and deep-thinking AI.

"I think we should be quite concerned that [deep AI] has the potential to be an existential threat," Musk said, but dismissed the possibility of himself developing such AI.

More attention must be given to AI safety, he said, comparing it to nuclear power safety.

"That's why in nuclear power, the overwhelming amount of engineering and research is into safety. That should also be true with AI," Musk said.

CANCER CURED, MORE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

In another bold prediction, Musk said humanity would see huge breakthroughs in curing diseases, even without rewriting genetics.

"In the next 10 years, I actually expect most forms of cancer to be completely cured [...] based on the companies that I know that are developing extremely good cancer cures and that are in late stage of human trials."

Humanity will also probably substantially address, if not eliminate, Alzheimer's in 10 years, predicted Musk, who is not involved in medical business.

However, he believes curing cancer will only increase the average human life span by two-three years as our fundamental life cycle is genetically wired. Whether humanity should or not rewrite genetics is a difficult question, he said.

Musk said he hoped the future would see more sustainable energy used, with solar panels and batteries powering the world. He forecast "high double-digit" growth in U.S. solar power demand.

Musk is chairman of U.S. solar company Solar, which provides design, financing and installing of solar power systems.

The company is one of the biggest solar panel buyers from China, Musk said.

He also expects a surge in electric car production and use, noting that Tesla was founded to accelerate the advent of electric vehicles, forcing other car makers to follow suit.

Musk's China trip comes after Tesla sales in the country reportedly fell below expectations last year. He attributed the situation to speculators canceling orders and pledged strong commitment to the Chinese market. Endi