News Analysis: Turkey parties wrestle for more seats in decisive polls

Turkey's parliamentary elections to be held on June 7 will have a permanent impact in determining the country's long term future, experts agreed Thursday.

Thirty-one political parties have recently been found eligible for elections in the 550 parliament seats by Turkey's High Election Board.

Those who surpass the 10 percent threshold will be eligible for a seat in parliament.

In case the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) wins 400 seats in parliament, with the support of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the ruling party will be able to change the constitution to a presidential system.

Erdogan has long been defending the presidential system aiming to change the current political structure based on multi- party democracy.

However, opposition parties in parliament, the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP) claim that the presidential system will lead the country towards an authoritarian regime.

According to experts, the only party with the capacity to prevent Erdogan's target of changing the regime to a presidential system is the HDP.

"The HDP is also the only party with the capability to force the AKP to adopt democratic principles towards the Kurdish peace process," said Faruk Acar, head of Andy Ar Center for Social Research.

According to the latest survey conducted by the Andy Ar Center, HDP's current voting rate has reached 9.2 percent.

Speaking about the importance of HDP, Acar told Xinhua that "Due to the Kurdish peace process, the party is now considered guarantors of democracy in the country."

The process itself is the main driving force for the country to improve its democratic credentials, he also added.

Imprisoned leader of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, during his appeal to the PKK to stop fighting, also outlined democratic tenets essential for a democratic country.

Ocalan highlighted 10 measures which need to be achieved to ensure lasting peace, including creating a new constitution and greater regional democracy.

Scholar at Diyarbakir-based Dicle University, Faculty of Law, Vahap Coskun also highlighted that Ocalan's appeal strengthened HDP's hand before general elections.

"The HDP will enter elections as architects of the peace process," he told Xinhua.

According to him, HDP will take every precaution to secure the success of the peace process.

The main concern now is whether the HDP will exceed the 10 percent election threshold.

The 10 percent threshold has been imposed by the military regime after the 1980 coup and is now supported by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The AKP claims that the threshold is necessary for political stability.

According to Acar, the probability for the HDP to exceed the 10 percent threshold and win seats in parliament is quite high.

"Although the current party votes are around 9 percent, almost 20 percent others want the HDP to enter parliament for the sake of democracy. This is almost double their vote rate," he said.

Regarding current vote rates of other opposition parties the Andy Ar poll revealed the AKP to be in the lead with 45 percent of the votes while the Republican People's party (CHP) garnered 25 percent, coming in second place.

The MHP's vote rate reached 16 percent with a slight increase, gaining nationalist votes in reaction to the Kurdish process.

Most nationalists are against the peace process being conducted with PKK leader Ocalan. Ocalan is serving a life sentence for 30 years of war against the Turkish army for Kurdish independence. The war left 40,000 people dead.

The rate of uncertainty is quite high at 18 percent. This figure is a determining factor for election results, Acar argued.

An analyst at YESODER sociology association, Korkmaz Sural, commenting on the AKP being the first party at the polls said, "Those voting in favor of the AKP did so because of the updated, dynamic structure of the AKP. Its culture based on practical solutions in daily life has now been established."

He also thinks that the AKP took important steps towards institutionalizing this culture.

Although the CHP is the second biggest party in parliament and the main opposition party, it is powerless in effecting radical change in the political system, experts agreed.

"The party can't renew itself nor abandon its fear-based discourse. They (opposition parties) fell short of swaying public opinion. I don't think that the AKP has competition in that sense," he said.

According to him, opposition parties can't do more than criticize the AKP and are ideologically stuck. "The AKP, on the other hand, has structure ensuring practical benefits," he said. Enditem