News Analysis: IS threat prompts U.S. shift in approach to Syria

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's fresh desire to re-ignite negotiations with Syria's Assad reflects a possible shift in the international approach toward solving the conflict in Syria, analysts said.

The fresh remarks, according to analysts, indicated the start of a new chapter in the Syrian conflict, particularly after the failure of Western plans to bring down the Assad regime by force, and the emergence of powerful extremist groups which have posed threats also to the West.

On Sunday, Kerry said he wanted to "re-ignite" negotiations with Assad to end the conflict in Syria. He added that the international community was upping pressure on the Assad administration to hold new peace talks, saying "we have to negotiate in the end" with Assad.

"Kerry's remarks indicate that the U.S. administration is reviewing its policies toward Syria, as the crisis is entering its fifth year. But now America has apparently become convinced that destroying the Syrian state by force is impossible," Hmaidi Abdullah, a political researcher, told Xinhua on Monday.

He said that plunging the region into extra violence will not serve the interests of the United States.

Throughout the crisis in Syria, Western counties, particularly the United States, have emerged as the backers of the opposition insurgency against the Assad administration.

Those powers have also branded Assad as "illegitimate" and demanded his ouster, not to mention severing the diplomatic relations between their countries and Syria.

Still, Kerry's remarks that "we are working very hard with other interested parties to see if we can re-ignite a diplomatic outcome" is considered a shift in the stiff U.S. stance toward Assad and his government.

Hussam Shuaib, another analyst, said the U.S. remarks may constitute a "Western desire to re-open the severed diplomatic channels between the West and the Syrian government," noting that the U.S. move reflects an international will to start a real political solution to Syria's four-year-old conflict.

Other voices inside the Assad administration, while welcoming the move, said that the remarks should be materialized on ground instead of only verbally.

Hayan Salman, Syria's deputy minister of economic affairs, told Xinhua that "the U.S. move is a step in the right direction," noting that the Syrian state, however, "should not really count on such remarks" until further details emerge about the true will of the United States and its Western allies.

Assad himself commented on Kerry's statement, saying "we are listening to statements but we have to wait for the actions and then we can decide," according to the state news agency SANA.

Aside from opinions on the impossibility of bringing down the Syrian regime by force, other analysts highlighted another reason behind the fresh U.S. remarks.

Bassam Abu Abdullah, a political researcher, attributed the U.S. desire to negotiate with Assad to the "near-signing" of the debatable nuclear deal between the United States and Iran, noting that "solving the Syrian crisis is part of the political settlements in region based on that deal."

Many others said the Iranian talks with the Western powers could reflect positively on the Syrian crisis, as a solution to the Syrian crisis can be included in the package of the Iranian talks with the superpowers over Tehran's nuclear program, given Iran's involvement in the Syrian crisis as the main regional ally to Syria.

Another reason behind the ostensible shift in the Western policies apparently came after the growing threats of the extremist group Syria, mainly the Islamic State (IS) group, whose influence has stretched outwards to reach Western countries.

The Western fears have spiked with reports about Westerners joining the IS in Syria, with some of them returning to their original countries extra radicalized. Recent security incidents in Europe have also nurtured the West's fears for the explosive situation in Syria.

Mahumud Muri, a Syrian opposition figure, said in an interview with Xinhua said that the presence of extremist groups in Syria, mainly the IS militant group, would push the Western countries to change their policies toward the Syrian crisis.

With that in mind, he predicted that the fifth year of the Syrian crisis could include solutions and phases of finding exits to the current conflict.

"I think that the fifth year of the Syrian crisis is going to be the year of finding political solutions to the crisis and I think that the European policies toward Syria have already started to shift with the beginning of this year, when we witnessed the visits of a number of foreign delegations to Damascus for coordination with the Syrian government, and I think that some closed embassies will reopen in Damascus this year," Muri said.

He said the Western countries have grown more convinced of the need to end the conflict in Syria politically and that "betting on destroying the Syrian regime by force cannot last because terrorism in Syria would rebound in Europe and all the countries that supported it."

"Terrorism has become so close to Europe as we see now the IS is in Libya and is posing threats to Europe whose countries now should start coordinating with the countries that are fighting the terrorist groups, such as Syria," he added.

Safwan Akkasheh, a leading member in the oppositional National Coordination Body, expressed optimism about the fifth year of the crisis, with the apparent shift in the international policies toward Syria and Russia's efforts in supporting the Syrian dialogue between the government and the opposition forces in Moscow.

"There are new horizons of the political solution, maybe it could become clearer in mid-2015 based on the fresh Russian effort in creating the climate for the political dialogue between the government and the opposition, in addition to the threats of IS which could push everyone to reposition in a way that could be conducive in ending this crisis," he said. Endit