1st Ld-Writethru-China Focus: Business leaders, economists on China's "around-7-pct" slowdown

In a government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang Thursday, China set the growth target at "around 7 percent" for 2015, or 0.5 percentage point lower than that of 2014.

The announcement marked an end to months of guessing games among Chinese and global financial institutions over the symbolic figure, which had never been so closely watched at home and abroad over previous years.

Many analysts and economists believe that the growth target is not only the official barometer of the Chinese economy, but also sheds further light on how the Chinese leaders plan to steer the economy. With a gross domestic product (GDP) of over 10 trillion U.S. dollars in 2014, China is second only to that of the United States.

The Chinese economy, which contributed about 30 percent to the world's total growth in 2013, has been facing notable downward pressures and slowing down to a state that is called "new normal." In 2014, the economy expanded 7.4 percent, registering its weakest annual expansion since 1990.

-- Jack Ma, executive chairman of the Alibaba Group, U.S.-listed Chinese e-commerce giant:

The growth target is lower than that of last year, but the Chinese economy is already the world's second largest in terms of size. With such a big size, we have to turn to healthier growth, instead of pursuing high-speed growth endlessly.

It is like a man's height that can't grow higher forever. When growing up, we will try to pursue more thoughts and wisdom. The Chinese economy is slowing down, but as long as we improve our business environment, people will show more understanding and support to new commercial models, and the economic growth will have a higher quality.

We have to adapt to the laws of economic and social development. China can't, and shouldn't, sit on high speed of growth in the past. We should pursue more quality growth.

-- Lei Jun, national lawmaker and CEO of Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi Inc.:

China's economy used to have high speed of growth over the past years, and now we should try to control the pace. China's manufacturing sector, which suffers overcapacity, is facing a hard-won chance thanks to the mobile Internet. We should make use of the mobile Internet and upgrade the manufacturing industries. The key is to raise the quality of our products and create global brands.

Businesses related to the mobile Internet are growing rapidly, so the slowdown of China's economy has very little impact on us (Xiaomi Inc.). In the past several years, Xiaomi Inc. has maintained explosive growth. This year, I think we will still have high speed of growth. Xiaomi Inc. will also press ahead with our work in overseas market steadily.

-- Li Yanhong, national political advisor and chairman of the Chinese language search engine Baidu.Com Inc.:

In face of economic "new normal," especially the downward pressures, the Internet is set to play a significant role in shoring up China's economic development. In the past years, the Internet has exerted huge impact on traditional businesses, such as the media and retail sale. But in the coming years, the Internet will probably help spur traditional industries and improve their efficiency.

We (Baidu) see no much pressure owing to the slowdown of China's economy. There is plenty of innovation room in terms of the Internet. (Baidu's) automatic drive technology is about to debut, and we will seek cooperation with potential carmakers including German carmaker BMW. We could make more contributions to China's economy as it tries to pursue more quality growth.

-- Yang Yuanqing, chairman and CEO of Lenovo Group, the world's biggest personal computer maker:

The "new normal" of China's economy implies adaptation. Pressure is there since we (Lenovo) enjoyed high speed of growth in the past. Now we need to find more new growth areas. We have limited growth in China's market, so we actively implement "going global" strategy and explore overseas markets. Lenovo's international business is growing very well. Now China accounts for a third of Lenovo's businesses, and the other two thirds are in overseas markets.

China's economy slowed last year, so did the PC sector. But we (Lenovo) added 3,000 employees in China, because of fast expansion of our international business. Internationalization has become a driving force for China's economic growth, and companies can learn from such practices.

-- Doug Oberhelman, chairman and CEO of U.S.-based Caterpillar, the world's leading maker of construction and mining equipment:

The shift from a double-digit growth to a medium-high growth is inevitable, and no economy can grow at a double-digit rate for ever.

The Chinese economy is expected to go through a slower but more sustainable growth as well as cycles that we have seen in the United States and Europe. This is a very normal trajectory for our business, one that we are used to dealing with.

The sustained rise of China's economy is a marvel. It is an inspiring example of how strong leadership dedicated to progress can transform a nation and lift millions out of poverty.

Caterpillar welcomes, and will continue to support China's efforts to further transform its growth model and comprehensively deepen reforms. Both countries and companies need continuous reforms to generate growth momentum.

The slower Chinese growth rate would not mean shrinking of Caterpillar's assets based in China at all, probably a slower rate of expansion.

-- David Dollar, senior fellow with John L. Thornton China Center under U.S. think-tank Brookings:

I expect China to announce a growth target for 2015 of "around 7 percent." It is realistic for China's economy to grow in the 6-7 percent range. Investment has been very high in recent years and this has created excess capacity in housing and manufacturing, especially sectors such as steel and cement. In the face of this excess capacity investment is naturally slowing down and that drags down the GDP growth rate.

I do not see that as a problem for China or the world, as long as the slowdown is gradual. In this situation China's service sectors are growing faster than industry. Those sectors are more labor-intensive so China is creating enough jobs. Also, because of demographics China does not need to create as many jobs as in the past.

China's investment boom was one factor driving up global prices for energy, iron, and copper. In the recent trade data we see China importing less of these commodities, and that has some negative effect on the economies that depend heavily on exporting primary products. But at the same time China is importing more of other things. For example, 100 million Chinese went abroad last year (we consider tourism overseas a kind of import for China and export for the countries that are visited). So China will continue to provide a lot of demand for other economies, but the nature of that demand is changing.

-- Li Daokui, economist and head of the Center for China in the World Economy of Tsinghua University:

There is no need to over-interpret the lowering of the growth target. Compared with the "around 7-percent," what needs more attention is whether China could further reduce risks related to finance, property market and local government debts. If proper measures are taken, China will be able to reduce these risks.

What remains to be seen is whether the government could put in place reform measures related to finance, fiscal and taxation, so as to enable the real economy to enjoy better financing environment.

On the job market, pressure is not very strong since job creation capability of China's economy is much higher than that in the previous years. One percent of GDP growth now could creates nearly 2 million new jobs.

-- Li Ruifeng, national lawmaker from the coal-rich Shanxi Province:

Shanxi economy, which expanded 4.9 percent year on year in 2014, the slowest growth rate among the 31 provincial-level regions, is set to face more difficulties in the near term since Shanxi relies heavily on resources.

In the long run, however, the lowering of China's national growth target may present a chance for Shanxi to propel it to restructure its economy.

Shanxi should emphasizes more on innovation-driven growth and shift its development model from the one which relied too much on resources. Otherwise, Shanxi would face more problems.

-- Wang Hua, 45-year-old taxi driver from rural Beijing:

I don't know much about the economy, and I don't think the slowdown would hurt ordinary people's lives for now. Beijing has seen rapid growth in recent years, but the side-effects cannot be ignored. The environment is polluted, and the farmland are expropriated, leaving farmers no choice but to migrate to cities for a living.

One thing is for sure, that is making money is no longer easy for some industries like real estate. But more opportunities are coming up for industries not that promising in the past. One of my friends is running an ecological livestock raising farm on the outskirts of Beijing, and the business is booming.

Ordinary Chinese people nowadays value more about health and environmental protection, for which the supports from government are also strengthened. Even though the economy is slowing, people's lives would improve thanks to better environment and health. Endi