News Analysis: South Sudan's new agreement gives peace hope amid concerns of failure

A new cease-fire agreement between South Sudan rivals was recently signed in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.

The new truce deal opened a new window of hope for reaching an end to the violent conflict which broke in the newly-born state in December last year amid concerns that it may face similar fates of previous agreements.

South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit and rebel leader Riek Machar signed on Feb. 2, an agreement stipulating cease-fire, power-sharing and formation of an interim government prior to reach a comprehensive prospect for ending the conflict by March 5.

The agreement this time included detailed suggestions on power-sharing where it stipulated that the structure of the interim government is to be of Kiir as president and Machar as vice president, provided that a second vice president is to be named from the Equatoria areas.

Abdul-Rahim Mohamed, a Sudanese political analyst, said that the details contained in the new agreement on power-sharing and involvement of all parties in South Sudan constituted the essential point which could help the new agreement to survive.

"The previous agreements collapsed because they contained general and not detailed suggestions. Since the main conflict in South Sudan is relating to the dispute over power, the new agreement seems practical and realistic," Mohamed told Xinhua.

"The new agreement was keen to address the root-causes of the problem which is the dispute over power as it did not neglect any party whether the standing government, or the movement led by Machar or the released group which include persons of political weight," he noted.

In the meantime, although the new agreement opens new horizons for peace, concerns arise as the two parties have previously violated similar agreements.

To this end, Atim Simon, a South Sudanese political analyst, told Xinhua by phone that "this agreement seems to have been a result of the international sanctions waved by the mediation of the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD)."

"The IGAD has adopted the policy of carrot and stick via waving the sanctions on one part and promising to delay publication of the file of the two parties' violations and atrocities against the civilians on another," noted Simon.

He pointed out that the agreement would face real difficulties as South Sudan's issue could not be confined to power-sharing only, saying that "this agreement is focusing on power-sharing, while there are other major issues that must be resolved so the agreement becomes comprehensive."

Simon said the other major outstanding issues include the forces outside the formal framework, the security file, the comprehensive reconciliation among the Southern Sudanese communities, the humanitarian file, the violations, the compensations and management of the transitional period.

"Without reaching real solutions to these issues, the new agreement will face the same fate of the previous ones," he noted.

Regarding the structure of the interim government, the new agreement proposed 60 percent of the seats for the current government and 30 percent for the rebels and 10 percent for the released group and other political parties.

Concerning the parliament, it is to comprise of 400 members according to the new agreement, including the current 332 members in addition to 68 new members to be divided according to the power-sharing agreement.

The two South Sudanese rivals are expected to sign a final agreement on February 20, according to Seyoum Mesfin, the IGAD chief mediator.

Mesfin was reported to have warned of severe action against anyone of the parties who breaks the new agreement and vowed to report them to the African Union Peace and Security Council which would in turn refer the file to the UN Security Council.

South Sudan plunged into violence in December 2013, when fighting erupted between troops loyal to President Salva Kiir and defectors led by his former deputy Riek Machar.

The conflict soon turned into an all-out war, with the violence taking on an ethnic dimension that pitted the president's Dinka tribe against Machar's Nuer ethnic group.

The clashes have left thousands of South Sudanese dead and forced around 1.9 million people to flee homes. Enditem