News Analysis: Strives in Yemen dimming prospect of political transition

Tensions mounted in Yemen's capital of Sanaa on Wednesday as negotiations between the government and Houthi group are underway to put an end to the political crisis.

The Houthi leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, delivered a speech on Tuesday night, demanding the formation of a monitoring committee to revise the draft constitution and restoring security in Sanaa.

The Houthi group took over the presidential palace in southern Sanaa on Tuesday after clashed with presidential guards one day go that left nine people killed and 79 others injured.

Information Minister Nadia Abdul-Aziz al-Sakaf accused Houthis of seeking a coup against President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, which was denied by Abdul Malik al-Houthi in his televised speech.

Oberservers said Yemen has almost lost a historic opportunity to make a real political change which the people have been looking forward to for decades.

RESULT OF SYSTEMATIC CHAOS

Fuad Alsalahi, a political sociology professor at Sanaa University, said the deadlock in Sanaa was a natural result of systematic chaos deepened by local factions and their foreign supporters.

The latest development could be seen as nailing the political transition in the coffin, he said.

Fresh clashes were triggered by disagreements between Hadi and the Houthi group on the consensually drafted constitution.

Political forces in Yemen kicked off the national reconciliation dialogue in March 2013, two years after mass protests forced former president Ali Abdullash Saleh to step down.

The dialogue, due to produce tangible results in six months, ended in January 2014, as few political parties were willing to to make compromise.

According to the final document of the national dialogue, Yemen will be divided into six federal regions, which granted more power to regional authorities and tribes since the central government in Sanaa was weakened by the 2011 upheaval.

However, the Houthi group, based in the northern Saada province, insisted that the country be divided into two federal regions and control of the north one.

Observers said persistent power struggle among local factions, external meddling, failed reconciliation mechanisms, interference of the former regime and ineffective UN solutions, mostly through sponsoring deals between local partners, have led to the burial of the political process.

The government and Houthi group signed in September the peace and national partnership agreement that ended week-long deadly clashes.

However, Abdul Salam Muhammad, head of the ABAAD studies and research center, said the agreement was against the outcomes of the national dialogue conference, which paved the way for Houthis to take over the capital by force.

Alsalahi said Houthis are a single partner which should not have the right to exclude, attack or impose its own options and conditions on other factions.

The silence of other factions exposed either cooperation with the Houthi group or absence of helpful visions to address challenges and lay the ground for a stable state, he said.

PEACE PRIORITY

According to data released by Yemen's central bank early December, Yemen's gross foreign currency reserves slipped to 4.9 billion U.S. dollars in October, as oil exports fell, exposing the country's fragile public finances.

A senior official in the finance ministry told Xinhua that the foreign reserves would ran out if chaos continue and financial support from Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, could not be resumed.

Gulf countries temporarily halted financial support for Yemen after the Houthi group violently took over control of Sanaa in September.

Even the entire political process is under deadlock, the country should top its priority to avoid further violence, observers said.

Najeeb Ghalab, a politics professor at Sanaa University, said Houthis will not be able to rule the country whatever they do.

When in office, Houthis will face a divided government and multiple foreign players, and maybe armed conflicts, and then the country will see more poverty and instability, he said.

"Nonetheless, there is still a possible solution to avoid that through reaching a consensus by all Yemeni factions to restore the role and responsibilities of the armed forces and then agree on a roadmap to transfer power from Hadi to another president," he said.

"The failure of reconciliation since 2012 never means the Houthi group has become the only option to rule and make a real change in Yemen. It is impossible for a single, incompetent faction to control the situation especially in a complicated society like Yemenis," Ghalab added.

In this context, Alsalahi said Yemenis and the international community should focus on the state-building issue. "The point is that political deals, reconciliation and dialogues should focus on building a real state more than the focus on equal quotas or ambitions of powerful groups," he said. Endit