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Stimulus Package Has Started Bearing Fruits

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A growth rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, the lowest in a decade, has reaffirmed the Chinese government's commitment to stimulate its economy through massive domestic spending and targeted foreign assistance.

The country's leaders are serious about pulling China out of the economic crisis and helping its trading partners in East Asia do so as well. America should applaud China's efforts.

At home, China continues to retool its own economy to stimulate growth. The government rolled out a 4 trillion yuan (US$586 billion) stimulus package in November last year for increased infrastructure spending, earthquake relief, and an expanded social safety net.

Bank loans have touched a record high, with domestic loans growing 29.8 percent in March from a year earlier.

The China Securities Journal and the Oriental Morning Post have reported that leaders are planning a second stimulus package that would issue guideline policies and continue to use fiscal and taxation measures to fuel growth, though similar rumors in early March turned out to be false.

Whatever the case may be, macroeconomic indicators show that China's stimulus package is already having a significant impact. Car sales in March were up 10.2 percent from a year earlier, according to the official data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Property sales in major cities are up too. And more importantly, the import of raw materials in March, including crude oil and iron ore, hit record levels in anticipation of greater demand.

According to government data, the manufacturing sector in China grew for the first time in six months.

The growth has led to speculation that China may have turned a corner, bottoming out from the global economic freefall of 2008. But bottoming out is not recovery.

China will likely still take a long time to recover, and a number of daunting challenges remain. A Morgan Stanley report in March warned that the November stimulus may have helped maintain gross domestic product growth, but it is unlikely to deliver corporate earnings. Other critics note that the package has funded too many local pet projects, which could in the long run contribute to China's industrial overcapacity, poor rates of return - bad bank loans in future - and exacerbate China's environmental problems.

Moreover, with global - particularly American - demand for Chinese exports declining, China must either lower its production levels or increase domestic demand for goods that were once consumed by foreign countries. Currently, China is doing neither. Instead, it has strengthened its export sector by lowering export taxes, constraining wage rises, and reducing interest costs.

If this continues, a critic noted, there will certainly be a backlash from foreign leaders and their citizens.

That's why the stimulus' focus on expanding the nation's social safety net is so important. It will directly tackle the primary cause of high savings rate in China and spur domestic consumption, which would offset export declines in the short term and generate sustainable, balanced growth in the long term.

For China, the massive 850 - million -yuan healthcare plan, alongside better labor practices and pension plans, and more available public goods together constitute a significant step toward establishing the necessary services that Chinese citizens would need to stop stowing away contingency savings at such high rates.

China is also looking to help its neighbors cope with the economic crisis. For starters, China plans to join Japan in contributing the bulk of the funds for the Chiang Mai Initiative, a US$120 billion emergency fund dedicated to shoring up consumer demand in the East Asian region.

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