Wang Qing, Morgan Stanley Asia chief economist for China, said GDP growth would hit a trough in the first or second quarter. China will perform better than most economies affected by the global crisis and gradually improve this year, he said.

Zhang also predicted the economy will touch bottom and start to recover later this year, depending on the performance in January and February.

Zhang forecast GDP growth of more than 8 percent for 2009, based on the assumption that domestic demand and accelerating urbanization would help cushion China from world economic conditions.

Wang Tongsan, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said whether GDP growth exceeds 8 percent this year depends on how the world economy performs and how well the government stimulus policies are implemented.

Ma characterized the "difficulties" China experienced in the fourth quarter as temporary, saying: "We should have the confidence to be the first country out of the crisis."

Overall, the economy maintained good momentum with fast growth, stable prices, optimized structures and improved living standards, said Ma.

China's performance was better than the average growth of 3.7 percent for the world economy last year, 1.4 percent for developed countries and 6.6 percent for developing and emerging economies, he said, citing estimates of the International Monetary Fund.

"With a 9-percent rate, China actually contributed more than 20 percent of global economic growth in 2008," said Ma.

He said the industrial structure became "more balanced" last year, with faster growth of investment and industrial output in the less-developed central and western regions than in the eastern areas.

(Xinhua News Agency January 22, 2009)