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Dilemmas of China in London Summit

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Second, coordination of the dollar and international currency. China will not abandon the policy of buying US debt. It is one of the bases of Sino-US cooperation and confidence, and assures the stability of Sino-US trade. The interests of China and the US are so interconnected, or perhaps ensnared, that they must find a way to resolve the international economic crisis that is moderate and not revolutionary. For the moment the idea of an international currency is an ideal that will not be realized – there are too many differences among developed and developing countries. However, it is natural for China to worry about the value and reliability of its US national debt.

Third, the distribution of voting rights in the IMF offers little to China. Compared with the US, which holds almost 19 percent of votes, and the EU, which holds about 30 percent, China has too little influence in IMF regime. China's vote in the IMF will continue to be limited as long as it is based on its share of contributions. Perhaps if the IMF can be restructured along the lines of the UN Security Council, in which China holds a veto right, then China can be expected to make a greater contribution. At the end of the day China is still a poor country by the standard of per capita GDP, and has less expertise and experience than developed countries.

Fourth, balancing of protectionism and free trade. China is confident about its open policy, which welcomes trade and investment from all the countries. On the other hand, China fears that other countries will implement policies of protectionism that could damage the sound balance of trade and investment between China and its partner countries. During the Summit, China must argue a confident case for avoiding protectionism, for all the short-term attractions it might offer to others.

The London G20 Summit not only represents the interests of the major developed countries, but also of the medium-sized and the developing countries, who all share the responsibility of keeping the international economic order stable and vigorous. The US is not ready to abandon its leading international role. China has no incentive to lead other countries in challenging or overturning the current international order under which its strength and influence is able to grow.

China will stay prudent even as its power grows, remain resistant to flattery, continue to be cooperative in developing relations with others, keep its principles to the forefront when challenged, and be alert to any threats. China will conduct itself in a way that is commensurate with its international and domestic strategic objectives, and follow the appropriate path towards their realisation.

Zhou Shixin, researcher fellow of Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. His current research fields are Southeast Asia studies and China's foreign policy.

(China.org.cn April 2, 2009)

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