IMF Can Play Leadership Role to Tackle Global Crisis
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This reform is a dynamic reform, meaning that it has to be completed over time with several rounds. The first decision, which can be made at the G20 Summit, will be to shorten this period from2013 to 2011. By then, we will have a new round, with a new increase in emerging market countries quota, and probably for low-income countries as well.
But legitimacy of the IMF is not only a question of quota and the influence of countries is not only the question of their quota. What changes the influence of a country in the Fund is its engagement with the Fund, including providing resources or providing technical assistance. The quota is very important, and we have to go forward, increasing the share of the emerging countries as it has been scheduled, but it's not the only question about legitimacy.
Q: Right now, many leaders are calling for doubling the IMF's arsenal to 500 billion dollars to fight the crisis. And China said it is interested in investing in bonds issued by the Fund. What's your idea? What do you think of future relations between the IMF and China?
A: Earlier this month, the G20 countries agreed on the urgent need to increase IMF resources very substantially. Already Japan has provided a loan of 100 billion U.S. dollars and the United States has also indicated that it envisages lending on the same order. European Union leaders agreed to provide 75 billion euros for us. All of these are very welcome.
We are now working with our members on a range of options, including: the recent U.S. proposal to substantially expand the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB), our primary multilateral borrowing arrangement that currently includes 26 countries ready to provide up to 50 billion dollars; other bilateral or multilateral support that could be deployed pending or in addition to a NAB expansion; and the possibility of selling bonds directly to members, (though not entering the bond market). China's interest in investing in bonds issued by the Fund is therefore very welcome, and we look forward to further exploring this possibility and strengthening our ties with the Chinese authorities.
We are continuing to work on these efforts, but my sense is that we are making very good progress towards ensuring full confidence that the Fund has sufficient resources to cope with this crisis. We will also need to consider the extent to which the need for increased resources is permanent and warrants a general increase in the Fund's quotas. There is broad support, including at the G20, for reaching a view on this by January 2011.
Q: The IMF said recently the global economy will shrink in 2009for the first time since World War II, what's your opinion about the global economy now? When might the global recession end? What kind of suggestions will you give to the leadership of the G20 to cope with the crisis?
A: As the financial crisis will have lasting effects on credit and capital flows, the world economy is expected to recover only gradually. While the next World Economic Outlook projections are still being finalized and will be due next month, global activity is expected to contract by 0.5-1 percent in 2009 on an annual average basis, before a modest recovery emerges in the course of 2010.
I should stress that turning around global growth will depend critically on more concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions and restructure banks as well as sustained strong policy support to bolster demand. The modest recovery is expected to be broad-based across advanced and emerging economies.
Q: What is the biggest challenge China faces right now? What are the lessons of the crisis for China?