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National Activity Index points to economic growth pick-up in Feb.

Xinhua,March 27, 2018 Adjust font size:

CHICAGO, March 26 (Xinhua) -- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.88 in February from +0.02 in January, a news release posted Monday on the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago shows.

Of the 85 economic indicators that are included in the CFNAI, 63 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 22 made negative contributions.

To be specific, 61 indicators improved from January to February, 23 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago attributes the increase to improvements in production-related indicators. Production-related indicators contributed +0.50 to the CFNAI in February, up from -0.15 in January. Total industrial production increased 1.1 percent in February after decreasing 0.3 percent in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.09 to the CFNAI in February, up from +0.03 in January.

The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Inventories Index increased to 56.7 in February from 52.3 in January.

Employment-related indicators contributed +0.31 to the CFNAI in February, up from +0.24 in January. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 313,000 in February after increasing by 239,000 in January. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved up to -0.02 in February from -0.10 in January.

Consumption indicators improved, pushing up the category's overall contribution. However, housing starts decreased to 1,236,000 annualized units in February from 1,329,000 in January.

CFNAI in February was constructed using data available as of March 22, 2018.

CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. As economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. Enditem

 

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