Roundup: Delayed poor long rains to worsen Kenya's food security: study

Kenya's food security is expected to remain precarious following a delayed poor long rains which also affected the 2016 cropping season and the prolonged drought ravaging many parts of the country, says a food security report released on Saturday.

The monthly report by donor-funded Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS Net), the early warning system that monitors food insecurity, says pastoral and marginal agricultural areas will be the most affected by food insecurity.

"There is a general decline in staple food availability across most markets, which is also attributable to reduced imports from Tanzania and Uganda. At the same time, household demand for food from markets has atypically increased," said FEWS Net.

Half of the East African nation is affected by the drought brought on by a third consecutive year of unreliable rains.

Already the number of people now in need of food assistance has reached 3 million - well over double the number recorded in December 2016. As a result, says the report, food commodity prices have risen as demand outstrips supply.

The report says wholesale maize prices in the urban consumption markets of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, and Eldoret have increased 19-39 percent between January and March, with current prices being 30-54 percent above five-year averages.

According to Kenya's State Department of Agriculture, stocks of most basic staples, such as maize, beans, rice, sorghum, millet, are still available in markets, especially in the high production areas, albeit at lower quantities.

FEWS Net warns that Fall Armyworm outbreak, if not managed, is also likely to exacerbate food insecurity, resulting in extensive crop damages and reduced food availability.

"The pest has affected some of the off-season crops, and also poses a threat to the long rains crops that are still at early stages of development," FEWS Net said.

Besides crops, the pest also has the potential to affect pasture fields, and could exacerbate the problem of forage scarcity currently being experienced, warns the report.

In late March, the government issued an alert on the outbreak of the Fall Armyworm (FAW) in nine Western and Rift Valley counties as well as in parts of the coastal marginal agricultural areas.

The government said the actual extent of damage caused by the pest is yet to be established, though potential for massive crop damage is possible, if the pest is not eradicated.

The government is currently monitoring the situation and is expected to release guidance for farmers on how to manage the pest soon.

"The cumulative effects of delayed and below-average long rains and armyworm invasion have the potential to cause significantly below-average long rains crop production," FEWS Net warned.

In the marginal agricultural areas, says the report, food security is expected to decrease further with the current unusually low agricultural production activities, resulting in a likely below-average harvest in July, which will not offset the growing food deficits that poor households will be facing.

"Staple food prices will remain elevated, with the expected below-average crop production, further compounded by outbreaks of the Fall Armyworm in parts of the marginal agricultural areas and in the high potential areas of western Kenya, which would further reduce food supplies," said FEWS Net.

With a majority of poor households dependent on markets for food, and without much of a reprieve following the harvest, the combination of low income and limited food supplies is likely to render some households unable to meet their minimum dietary needs.

Malnutrition levels are expected to increase as food and milk consumption decreases with an increased dependency on humanitarian interventions to stabilize malnutrition levels, FEWS Net said. Endit