UK Labour party faces tough local elections: experts

The Labour party is likely to do badly in local elections across the country before general elections on June 8, experts said Tuesday.

A series of local elections will be held on May 4 using a variety of electoral systems.

Campaigning for those elections, part of a scheduled pattern, began well before the surprise announcement by Prime Minister Theresa May to hold early general elections.

The general elections will be a factor in the local elections and will be an indication in some areas of how the various political parties can expect to perform in the general elections.

The seats in the May 4 elections in England were last contested in 2013, and represent a period of strong support for Labour, the main opposition party, although the areas being contested are traditionally more favorable to the Conservatives.

Labour will now struggle to defend gains made at the 2013 elections, said Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, election observers at the University of Plymouth.

Thrasher told a press briefing in London that the local elections would become a "very useful guide to what will happen at the general election."

Rallings and Thrasher, using what they call "an alternative measure of current electoral thinking," cited results from local elections already held to predict the movement in political support.

Thrasher said the figures showed that there had been a "dramatic rise in the last six weeks" in support for the Conservatives.

"Something rather profound is happening for that support to move that quickly in that direction," said Thrasher.

"Labour's path has been predictable and smooth and the slope is more or less downward from the post-referendum period onwards," said Thrasher.

The local elections in Wales would also be difficult for Labour, said Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University.

The Welsh seats were last contested in 2012 in polls that marked what Scully described as a "particular high point for Welsh Labour." The professor forecast that "the Conservatives would push Labour for first place in local voting intentions."

The Welsh Political Barometer poll predicted that Labour would gain 28 percent of votes and lose 20 seats, with the Conservatives securing 26 percent and gaining nine seats, according to Scully.

In Scotland, Labour was "defending a high baseline," said Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.

He added that following the dominance of the Scottish Nationalist Party in the 2015 elections, which saw it take almost all Labour's Westminster parliament seats, the local councils were now the "last place" in Scotland where Labour was significant.

Curtice said he would be "very surprised if Labour retained control of any council in Scotland" after the May 4 elections. Endi