Interview: "All scenarios possible" in upcoming French election: expert

All scenarios are possible in the looming presidential election in France, a senior expert in French politics told Xinhua, ahead of the first round of votes on Sunday.

Madani Cheurfa, secretary-general of the Political Research Center of Paris Institute of Political Studies (Science Po), said the uncertainty is due to a large proportion of undecided voters, who account for 34 percent in a recent poll.

An expected lower turnout is also one of the reasons that make this election "unprecedented", according to Cheurfa.

"The poll shows that only 72 to 77 percent of the respondents said they would vote, while the regular rate is between 78 and 80 percent," he said.

Recalling the previous elections, Cheurfa said that usually as of mid-March the tendency would have become quite clear with "two favorites standing out" in the polls, but this year it is not the case.

Polls show that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, far-right Marine Le Pen, far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon and right-wing conservative Francois Fillon are the four frontrunners of a total of 11 candidates.

The two candidates who get the most votes from the first round will move on to a second round on May 7. In case a candidate secures over 50 percent of the votes in the first round, he or she will claim victory without a runoff vote.

"There's a tendency among French voters that they are not voting for someone, but against someone. That is to say, they could vote for anyone except the one that they are against. This naturally brings even bigger uncertainty," said Cheurfa.

This election has seen changes of the French political landscape, as it is no longer a battle between the left and the right, but a tight race among the centrist, the far-right, the far-left and the conservative right-wing, according to the expert.

Moreover, a sense of alienation from traditional political elites is growing among French voters throughout the election campaigns, he added.

"According to a recent survey, 82 percent of the voters polled said that the political elites did not deal with the problems, but only their own situations. This 'divorce' materializes in this election with a high degree of uncertainty among the electorate," Cheurfa said.

He cited the example of the rise of Melenchon, explaining that it is the result of Melenchon's talent as a speaker and the fact that he was able to absorb votes from supporters of the traditional left-wing.

"He occupies the place of the one who speaks for the 'voiceless,'" said Cheurfa. "This role was for a long time undertaken by Jean-Marie Le Pen, then taken over by his daughter. This time, it was Melenchon who managed to embody it."

Asked about growing populism in the European Union (EU), represented by Le Pen in France, Cheurfa believes that it is "at the gates of power as in Austria, the Netherlands and possibly France".

"The current rise of populism in the EU can be explained by the fact that it is blamed -- rightly or wrongly -- for not being able to solve the problem of unemployment and the economic crisis," he said.

He explained that many French people have a "noble vision" of the EU's message but a negative view of its function. "Those who benefit from globalization perceive the EU as virtuous, while those who don't hold it responsible for their situation."

To Cheurfa, the issue of populism is "delicate", as it is the expression of the people, but also a rather easy and simplistic explanation of the world.

"The populist candidates want to make a clean sweep of the past to promise a future without taking into account the complexity of the reality," he added.

On the credibility of opinion polls, the expert suggests that they should be analyzed with caution as "a poll is just a photograph at a given moment".

"The opinion polls do not take into account the people who are not interested, but the 34 percent of undecided voters are those who will make the election," he said. Endit