Spotlight: Ecuadorians to go to polls to choose next president

Some 12.8 million eligible voters will go to the polls on Sunday to choose a successor to President Rafael Correa, whose 10-year tenure brought much-needed stability to the South American nation.

From 1997 to 2007, Ecuador had seven presidents, the last three were ousted before the end of their four-year term.

The current election is being closely watched to see whether the ruling PAIS Alliance will be given another four-year mandate to continue the "Citizen Revolution" it set in motion, or whether Ecuadorians will vote for a return to neo-liberalism, the only other political current on offer now in Latin America.

The two leading candidates are Lenin Moreno, of the progressive PAIS party, and ex-banker Guillermo Lasso, of the center-right Creating Opportunities (Creo) party.

"Two economic models are at stake: the politically progressive project the government has developed over the past 10 years and the old business model, which had severe consequences on the life of the nation," political analyst Juan Paz y Mino told Xinhua in an interview.

Polls show Moreno holds a commanding lead, but not enough to win an outright majority of more than 50 percent, or 40 percent with a 10-percent difference over his closest rival, as required by Ecuadorian law.

That means an April runoff is likely, and that would give Lasso a real shot at the presidency, if the other eight opposition political parties or coalitions unite behind a single candidate.

"Today in Ecuador there are two certainties and one doubt. The first certainty is that there is going to be a runoff; the second is that we are going to be in the runoff. And the doubt is, in what order are we going to come out, quite likely, we are going to come out first," A fairly confident Lasso told the press.

Though Ecuadorians appear to be generally satisfied with the current government, a corruption scandal at state-run oil company Petroecuador has tarnished the image of incumbent vice president Jorge Glas, who is also Moreno's running mate.

While Glas denies any wrongdoing, the scandal has given the opposition something to build their negative campaigns on.

Moreno seemed to address the issue in a recent speech during the campaign, saying: "You know you can trust me, I have never let you down and I never will. Let's continue to move forward together. You give me your vote, and I'll give you my actions and my heart."

Correa hopes the government's track record on fighting poverty, building infrastructure and increasing opportunities will be enough to win voters at the polls.

"We went from being the country of impossibilities to being the country of great achievements in all sectors; you know it, we have seen it," Correa said in January during celebrations marking his 10 years in office.

Fernando Casado, an academic and political analyst with the Institute for National Higher Studies, agreed with Paz y Mino that the race comes down to a contest between two different economic and political systems.

He also feels the outcome will be significant for Latin America, where recent elections and political events in countries such as Argentina and Brazil changed the political tide, replacing left-leaning leaders with conservative pro-business presidents.

If PAIS loses, it will mark the "end of an era" for the region's progressive governments; but if it wins, the progressive movements will be maintained, Casado said. Endi