Yearender: Japan's "Catch-22" political system poses myriad threats as Abe's autocratic reign goes unchecked

After railroading contentious security legislation through parliament and into law starting last year, the ruling bloc's abuse of power and disregard for public opinion has shown no signs of abating, as more bills have been rammed through the Diet while Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's vice-like grip on power shows no sign of letting up.

As evidenced by the recent enactment of a number of controversial bills, including the casino bill, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) bills and the pension reform bill, Japan's ruling bloc has continued to act with ever-increasing impunity and seems to have the liberty to pass legislation at will, despite often vociferous opposition from the public.

Described by some political watchers as a "one man show" it would also appear that there is no one capable enough of mounting a serious threat to Abe's leadership from within his own ruling Liberal Democratic Party, let alone the opposition camp and despite their efforts to, to a degree, join forces where they can.

STEAMROLLER EFFECT

The latest point in case of the government steamrolling unpopular, if not publicly vilified bills through parliament, was the recent passing of the casino bill in the face of staunch objection from the public and the opposition camp, with fears rife that the bill could augment the plague of gambling addiction that already affects more than 5 million people here, according to official figures.

Despite the opposition bloc's best efforts to shoot down and, finally, try and delay the passage of the bill, as it was passed after only six hours of deliberations, by submitting a no-confidence motion against Abe's cabinet and a censure motion against Abe himself, such is the LDP's overwhelming majority in both chambers of Japan's bicameral parliament, that such motions are now quickly and simply dismissed, leaving opposition parties with no weaponry to attack a runaway administration with its self-serving use of legislature.

This has, worryingly, become the new "modus operandi" for the hawkish leader and his LDP coterie, with no signs of real political or societal resistance. Or, so it would seem.

Last year, hundreds of thousands of people held rallies and protests around the nation against the controversial security bills, but the bills were enacted anyway, with the starting point being a unilateral reinterpretation of Japan's Constitution at a cabinet level, followed by the bills being forced though both chambers and significantly changing Japan's postwar pacifist stance and hence its future war potential.

The bellicose move left society here and the international community questioning Japan's political system and the ruling coalition's definition of democracy.

STRANGLE HOLD

Meanwhile, Abe's strangle-like grip of the ruling party and hence the future course of this island nation, is becoming stronger than ever.

"There is no one in sight that can challenge Abe's place now inside the LDP," Gerald Curtis, Prof. Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University, told a press conference earlier this year at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan.

Abe's ever-growing political clout has been aided by the ruling party's decision to revise its party rules to extend its president's tenure, which has paved the way for an extended Abe administration.

Under the current rules of the LDP, its president is theoretically allowed to serve two consecutive three-year terms, but the ruling party has decided to amend its rules to allow its president to serve three consecutive terms and nine years in total.

The current political situation, thus, analysts have asserted, could become further exacerbated, as a possible election in the more powerful lower house of parliament looms ever closer, with the exact timing at the discretion of the hawkish leader.

The dissolution of the lower house and calling of a snap election, would, in all likelihood, see Abe, who took office at the end of 2012, be Japan's Prime Minister until 2021, given his unchallenged position inside the LDP and assuming, as would almost certainly be the case, the LDP wins the upcoming lower house elections.

CATCH 22

Abe and the ruling LDP's strong-arm tactics in parliament are considered by many as a result of the electorate's lack of choice, instead of the actual merits of the administration itself.

Many Japanese people, though discontent with Abe's policies, are equally dissatisfied with the opposition parties, which seemed to have also failed to offer feasible solutions to the problems that Japan is faced with.

Meanwhile, Abe's campaigning strategy in important elections, which has been to oversell his economic policies while being evasive about his true political goal of revising Japan's pacifist constitution, has also contributed to the current Catch 22 political situation.

During the campaign period of the upper house election this July, both Abe and the LDP candidates, focusing on economic topics, rarely mentioned constitutional issues and artfully dodged such questions raised by the opposition parties.

This is not the first time for Abe to resort to such shady political tactics. Abe campaigned on the back of economic policies in the 2012 general election and in the snap election in 2014. But what he achieved after assuming power was to set about forcefully overturning Japan's postwar laws on security policy, despite massive demonstrations and protests from the public.

Over three years into "Abenomics", Japan saw real economic growth, or nominal economic growth adjusted for inflation or deflation, of just 0.8 percent last year, one of the lowest levels among major developed countries.

Koichi Yamauchi, a former lower house member, said in an article on the matter, that the reason for Abe's high support rate despite people's disappointment at Japan's sub par economic performance, Abe's flashy but ineffective foreign policies which have not helped bettering Japan's international environment, is that people tend to keep voting for the status quo until their dissatisfaction reaches a critical level, which takes time.

In the eyes of Hiroshi Onishi, a professor at Keio University in Tokyo, however, "the fundamental problem that causes such a political situation is that many people are overconfident in Western-styled democracy."

"The Western type of political ideology assumes that there is no other better way of achieving a majority decision. In this political atmosphere, the majority can decide everything, and the minorities' opinion can be neglected easily," he said.

"The problem is, if we don't vote for the LDP, who can we vote for with any hope of success and bringing about chance?" lamented Shibata, a voter at the Shibuya polling station during this July's upper house election.

REVERSING PEACE

The LDP has been advocating constitutional revision as part of its platform since the party was founded in the 1950s. In 2012, the party released its proposed draft constitution, including changing the sensitive Article 9 which states that the Japanese people "forever renounce war" and bans the "use of force as means of settling international disputes."

"Japan has been a peaceful country for the past 70 years thanks to the pacifist Constitution. Now the pacifist Constitution and Japan's peaceful existence are in extreme jeopardy...If the situation continues, Japan could revert to its warmongering past," said former Imperial Japanese Army soldier Goro Nakajima, concerned about the fate of the pacifist Constitution, in an interview with Xinhua earlier this year.

What could possibly impede Abe's plan, however, would be an unfavorable result of a national referendum needed to begin proceedings to legally change the Constitution. But as referendums go, there are no guarantees either way, with uncertainties always a possibility, as was the case with Britain's shock vote to leave the European Union.

Another obstacle for Abe's legacy-led plan to revise the Constitution would be a possible split inside the pro-revision camp, including the ruling LDP and its coalition Komeito ally, Osaka Ishin no Kai and the Party for Japanese Kokoro.

But meanwhile, Japan's Self Defense Forces, under the new security laws, are already, albeit unconstitutionally, expanding their activities abroad, while Japan's military budget is also set to rise for the fifth consecutive year in 2017, causing major concerns both at home and abroad. Endit