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Occurrence of climate-altering Pacific Ocean wind oscillation unlikely: Aussie authorities

Xinhua, November 8, 2016 Adjust font size:

The central Pacific Ocean will remain relatively cool due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remaining in a state of neutrality, Australian authorities said on Tuesday.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said in a statement that some La Nina-like impacts may occur but an event fully developing is unlikely.

The El Nino oscillation is the warm phase of the ENSO and is associated with a band of warm water that develops in the central and east-central Pacific, disrupting regular weather patterns and causing intense storms, including tropical cyclones, in North America and possible drought in Asia and Australia.

La Nina, the cool phase of ENSO, has the opposite effect with tropical storms and heavy rainfall being more likely in Asia and Australia after a La Nina occurrence and North America experiencing drought.

"Most climate models predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average, but ENSO-neutral, through until the end of the 2016-17 (Australian) summer," the BoM said.

"Only one of eight models suggests the Pacific may briefly reach weak La Nina levels towards the end of 2016. A La Nina developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980.

"Warmer than average sea surface temperatures to Australia's north suggest that some La Nina-like impacts may occur, even if an event does not fully develop."

The BoM said that the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, a phenomenon whereby sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean become warmer that causes high rainfall in Australia, was coming to an end.

"The negative IOD event, which has been in place since late May, has weakened over the past fortnight. The monsoon trough has begun to move southward over the IOD region, which changes the wind patterns. This change means the negative IOD event is near its end." Endit