News Analysis: Will S. Korea successfully set sail for new regime with constitutional revision?

South Korean President Park Geun-hye surprisingly proposed a constitutional revision on Monday to set sail for a new regime within her term in office that ends in February 2018.

Ruling and opposition lawmakers have agreed to the need for a new constitution in accordance with social and political changes in the past 30 years, but there is a long way to go as suspicions remain among opposition legislators about what is behind Parks suggestion.

Opinions differ even within the ruling party and separately among opposition lawmakers about how to amend the constitution, heralding a divisive, political wrangling ahead of next years presidential election.

President Park had opposed any discussion on constitutional revision as it could become what she called a black hole of all national agendas. Instead, she had claimed to focus more on economic and security issues.

Reversing her earlier stance, Park said in her parliamentary speech for the 2017 budget plan that she will set up a body inside the administration for constitutional amendment with an aim of completing it within her five-year tenure.

The chief executive said she anticipates a future-oriented constitution for a new 2017 regime, asking the National Assembly to form a special committee to garner public opinion and discuss the scope and content of the proposed amendment.

The so-called 1987 regime was launched in 1987 by rewriting constitution to adopt a single, five-year-term presidency under a direct election system. Previously, the countrys president had been elected indirectly under military dictatorships.

The current constitution of a single, five-year-term presidency, which has been in place for 30 years since its revision in 1987, might be appropriate for the past democratization period, but it now becomes a piece of clothing that does not fit (our) body, said Park.

DOUBT ABOUT TIMING

Park said now is the right time to build a new 2017 regime, but opposition lawmakers raised doubts about the timing as Parks proposal came amid the prosecutions ongoing probe into alleged irregularities of her long-time confidant.

Choi Soon-sil, who the main opposition Minjoo Party claims to be a behind-the-curtain heavyweight, is suspected of being involved in the establishment of Mir and K-Sports foundations. The party claims the foundations would be used for the presidents post-retirement activity.

Choi allegedly exerted her influence over an unprecedentedly swift approval of the establishments and a fundraising of tens of millions of U.S. dollars stemming from donations of the countrys major conglomerates such as Samsung and Hyundai.

Opposition lawmakers suspected that President Park may seek to divert public attention from the ongoing investigation with the amendment proposal.

Moon Jae-in, powerful presidential hopeful and former Minjoo Party chief, told reporters that President Park may be facing situations in which she needs any black hole to draw in all national agendas, according to local media reports.

Ruling Saenuri Party lawmakers welcomed the presidents suggestion, but other minor party members roughly cast doubt on the possible attempt to cover up the ongoing probe into the presidential confidants corruption scandal.

POLITICAL INTERESTS

Divisive wrangling is expected even within the ruling Saenuri Party and separately among opposition party members as political interests differ according to how the constitution is revised. The interests are divided between factions of the same political party.

Some have argued for an adoption of parliamentary cabinet system, while another have made out a case for semi-presidential system. Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo, a presidential aspirant of the minor Peoples Party which wields a casting vote, claimed to reform parliamentary election system before discussing the constitutional amendment, according to local media reports.

Amidst the expected wrangling, the constitutional revision issue is expected to be led by President Park who argued for a four-year, two-term presidency during her presidential election campaign in November 2012. Her argument can be changed on the result of parliamentary discussions.

The presidential office Cheong Wa Dae told a press briefing that Park can propose her own revision bill for the constitution if parliamentary discussions fail to make progress due to political interests, saying the discussions should be led by the president.

Constitutional revision bills can be proposed by both the president and lawmakers. The parliamentary proposal is required to be passed, with more than half of the 300-member National Assembly voting in favor.

The governing party has 122 parliamentary seats, followed by the main opposition Minjoo Party with 121 seats. The Peoples Party has 38 lawmakers, with the Justice Party owning 6 seats. The remaining 13 seats are earned by independent lawmakers.

President Park vowed to amend the constitution within her tenure that has 16 months left, but her pledge seems hard to be kept on time shortage and expected difficulties in reaching an agreement.

Ruling and opposition parties roughly agree on the need to change the countrys power structure that is centered excessively on the president, but opinions differ over the way of altering the structure.

In addition to the presidential system alteration, a new regime will require discussions on a broad array of social issues such as basic rights of the people and stronger welfare amid the aging population, falling birth rate and widening income inequality.

Proposed revision bills should be approved in the parliament, with more than two thirds of lawmakers voting in favor. The revised constitution is required to be passed through a national referendum, with more than half of voters needed to approve it.

Such procedures would take at least four months to wrap up. The president has no right to veto the amended constitution approved by the national referendum. Endit