2nd LD-Writethru: China Focus: China's new loans spike on housing, investment

China's stronger-than-expected lending data shows strengthened economic sentiment.

New yuan-denominated loans totalled 10.16 trillion yuan (about 1.5trillion U.S. dollars) in the first nine months of the year, an increase of 255.8 billion yuan on the same period last year, official data showed Tuesday.

Household loans increased 4.72 trillion yuan between January and September, while loans to non-financial companies and institutions rose 5.27 trillion yuan, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said in a statement.

PBOC data also showed that China's mortgages, which accounted for a big chunk of household loans, were 3.63 trillion yuan in first nine months parralelling substantial increases in housing prices and sales, representing an increase of 1.8 trillion yuan year on year.

A key reason for the surge of mortgage loans this year was active transactions on the property market in some first- and second-tier cities, Ruan Jianhong, director of the central bank's surveys and statistics department, said at a press conference Tuesday.

However, with the newly-initiated measures targeted at the real estate market in different cities, the change of mortgages deserves observation, Ruan added.

The data came on the heels of a string of moves to rein in speculative housing purchases, contain the risk of asset bubbles and stabilize the market, with more than 20 Chinese cities modifying their market rules, including higher deposits and more restrictions.

Some experts predicted a decrease in new mortgages in the coming months.

"With the tightening of policies on the housing market in various cities, mortgage loans are forecast to post a month-on-month decline in the fourth quarter this year," said Wen Bin, chief researcher with China Minsheng Bank, adding that speculation in the property market might trigger financial risks.

The view was echoed by a research note issued by Nomura, which commented that the "strength in mortgage loans continued in September [was] underpinned by the overheated property market," but property sales were expected to lose steam and demand for mortgage loans will fade accordingly after policy tightening.

In September alone, new yuan-denominated lending beat market forecasts to top 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 164.3 billion yuan on the same period a year earlier. Mortgages in September came in at 475.9 billion yuan, an increase of 205.5 billion yuan year on year.

China's producer price index (PPI), which measures costs at the factory gate, ended a 54-month straight decline in September to edge up 0.1 percent year on year, fresh evidence showing improvements of the real economy.

Loans to non-financial companies earmarked for fixed asset investments surged 226.3 billion yuan in September, reversing the decline of 100.1 billion yuan in August.

Loan demand from the corporate sector picked up in September, a positive sign for investment growth, said Nomura, warning that strong loan demand from the corporate sector might not last as growth momentum is likely to weaken in the fourth quarter.

China's money supply data were largely in line with market expectations, with M2, a broad measure of the money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, rising 11.5 percent year on year to 151.64 trillion yuan by the end of September, versus a growth rate of 11.4 percent in August.

The expansion of loans contributed to the quickened growth pace of M2, Wen explained.

M1, a narrow measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation plus demand deposits, rose 24.7 percent year on year to 45.43 trillion yuan by the end of September, versus a 25.3-percent growth rate in August.

Central bank data also showed newly added social financing, a gauge of funds that firms and households get from the financial system, grew by 13.47 trillion yuan in the first nine months, representing an uptick of 1.46 trillion yuan on the same period last year. Endi