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News Analysis: Clinton expected to get bounce in polls after first presidential debate

Xinhua, September 30, 2016 Adjust font size:

After scoring big in Monday's first U.S. presidential debate, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is likely to see a boost in the polls, making it more difficult for rival Donald Trump to catch up, experts said.

Clinton and Trump squared off on national TV on Monday night in their first one-on-one debate, which Clinton is perceived to have won.

Experts said Trump missed a number of opportunities in the debate, such as talking about the economy, the no. 1 issue of concern for Americans and an area in which the billionaire businessman has an advantage. While Trump came charging out of the gate at the start, Clinton dominated him more and more as the night went on.

Clinton's win should help her rise in the polls, although the impact may be limited, experts said.

"I think that Hillary will see a limited bounce from the debate," Dan Mahaffee, an analyst with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, told Xinhua, explaining that more educated and moderate Republicans will swing to Clinton.

But now is not the time for Clinton to rest on her laurels, as she will need to maintain her momentum and continue to highlight her experience, while also continuing to bait Trump into making gaffes that cause him to appear unsuited for the presidency.

"The Clinton campaign has done a perfect job of that with the growing back-and-forth between Trump and former beauty queen Alicia Machado. As he attacks her, he appears more and more like a petty bully rather than a potential statesman," Mahaffee said, referring to Trump's recent cracks about the former Miss Universe's weight gain.

"Trump needs to refocus on real issues, and not try to pursue personal attacks on Ms. Machado," Mahaffee said.

Trump needs to restore his more presidential bearing as soon as possible, and undo a lot of damage at the second debate on Oct. 9, Mahaffee said.

In the three weeks prior to the Monday debate, Trump had a good run and has started to close Clinton's lead in the polls, as the controversial billionaire toned down his insulting rhetoric and focused on the issues.

The brash businessman for the past year has become infamous for hurling insults at rival candidates and for what many critics call controversial and over-the-top statements.

While that earned Trump much respect from his supporters, it has also alienated him from many independent and undecided voters, said Darrell West, vice president and director of governance studies of the Brookings Institution.

West also said that Clinton will get a bounce out of her debate performance. "She has received great reviews for her ability to control the narrative and place Trump on the defensive," he told Xinhua.

As for Trump, he is already gearing up to get personal in the next debate, drudging up husband and former U.S. President Bill Clinton' s many extramarital affairs.

"The next debate is likely to be much nastier on his part. He already is pointing to Bill Clinton' s infidelities as something he plans to discuss," West said.

But that may not help him, as such news is 20 years old and many young voters were babies when those scandals occurred.

Experts said Trump needs to go after Clinton on her recent scandals. Those include her perceived mishandling of the 2012 terrorist attack on a U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, which ended in the death of a U.S. ambassador.

Other scandals include Clinton's use of a personal email account and server while she was secretary of state, which critics said compromised U.S. national security, and the alleged "pay to play" game involving the Clinton Foundation, which reportedly gave preferential access to the donors while Clinton was secretary of state.

"Trump needs to refocus attention on the Clinton Foundation. As long as the campaign is a referendum on Trump, he loses. He needs to show that he is the agent of change, while she represents the status quo," West said.

As of Thursday, Clinton is ahead of Trump by 3 percentage points in Wednesday' s Real Clear Politics average of polls. Endit