Study projects extensive urban applications of AI in 2030

A year-long study hosted by Stanford University has foreseen extensive applications of artificial intelligence (AI) in North American cities by year 2030 but nevertheless has reminded that the measure of success for the rapidly emerging technologies is the value they create for human lives.

Titled "Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030," the report was released this week by a 17-member panel of academic and industrial experts, some of them from outside the United States, as part of the One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100), an ongoing project to inform societal deliberation and provide guidance on the ethical development of smart software, sensors and machines.

"We believe specialized AI applications will become both increasingly common and more useful by 2030, improving our economy and quality of life," said Peter Stone, a computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin and chair of the panel. "But this technology will also create profound challenges, affecting jobs and incomes and other issues that we should begin addressing now to ensure that the benefits of AI are broadly shared."

The report identifies eight areas of human activity in which AI technologies are beginning to affect urban life in ways that will become increasingly pervasive and profound by 2030:

-- Transportation: autonomous cars, trucks and, possibly, aerial delivery vehicles may alter how urban residents commute, work and shop and create new patterns of life and leisure in cities;

-- Home/service robots: like the robotic vacuum cleaners already in some homes, specialized robots will clean and provide security in live/work spaces that will be equipped with sensors and remote controls;

-- Health care: devices to monitor personal health and robot-assisted surgery are hints of things to come if AI is developed in ways that gain the trust of doctors, nurses, patients and regulators;

-- Education: interactive tutoring systems already help students learn languages, math and other skills. More is possible if technologies like natural language processing platforms develop to augment instruction by humans;

-- Entertainment: the conjunction of content creation tools, social networks and AI will lead to new ways to gather, organize and deliver media in engaging, personalized and interactive ways;

-- Low-resource communities: investments in uplifting technologies like predictive models to prevent lead poisoning or improve food distributions could spread AI benefits to the underserved.

-- Public safety and security: cameras, drones and software to analyze crime patterns should use AI in ways that reduce human bias and enhance safety without loss of liberty or dignity.

-- Employment and workplace: work should start now on how to help people adapt as the economy undergoes rapid changes as many existing jobs are lost and new ones are created.

"AI technologies can be reliable and broadly beneficial," said Barbara Grosz, a computer scientist at Harvard University and chairwoman of the AI100 standing committee. "Being transparent about their design and deployment challenges will build trust and avert unjustified fear and suspicion."

Trying to assess the technological, economic and policy implications of potential AI applications in a societally relevant setting, the researchers acknowledge the need for public discourse and that "it is not too soon for social debate on how the fruits of an AI-dominated economy should be shared."

"Until now, most of what is known about AI comes from science fiction books and movies," Stone said. "This study provides a realistic foundation to discuss how AI technologies are likely to affect society."

However, while they do not consider it likely that near-term AI systems will autonomously choose to inflict harm on people, "it will be possible for people to use AI-based systems for harmful as well as helpful purposes," the researchers write in the report. "And though AI algorithms may be capable of making less biased decisions than a typical person, it remains a deep technical challenge to ensure that the data that inform AI-based decisions can be kept free from biases that could lead to discrimination based on race, sexual orientation, or other factors." Endit