News Analysis: Zambian leader faces tough test to retain power

After weeks of hectic campaigns in various parts of the country, presidential candidates will wind up their campaigns on Wednesday, with a tight contest between incumbent President Edgar Lungu and main opposition challenger Hakainde Hichilema.

With nine candidates running for president, it is obvious that the race is mainly between Lungu, the presidential candidate of the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) and Hichilema, leader of the main opposition United Party for National Development (UPND).

Lungu, 60, will hold his last rallies on Wednesday before finalizing the campaigns in Lusaka for this hotly-contested election since the nation's return to multiparty politics in 1991.

The 54-year-old opposition leader, Hichilema, believes he has made inroads in the ruling party strongholds of Copperbelt and Northern Provinces.

But with no reliable opinion polls, experts have predicted that the contest will be too close to call, with no clear favorite.

The two candidates have so far held massive rallies throughout the country with huge turnouts, and each candidate is expressing confidence of carrying the day.

During last year's presidential election called to succeed President Michael Sata, who died in office, Lungu got 807,925 votes while Hichilema got 780,168 votes.

The question on many people's minds is can Lungu repeat the same feat like last year and bounce back to power.

While his supporters and allies have boasted that Lungu will definitely emerge victorious following his performance since January last year when he became Zambia's sixth president, analysts believe that it will not be smooth sailing.

However, his supporters, who have nicknamed him "Mr. Walk-the-Talk", believe he deserves victory because of the massive infrastructure projects he has rolled out since winning the elections.

But his opponents have dismissed the claims, saying there is nothing Lungu has done to warrant re-election.

They have pointed to the current economic malaise, which has seen the cost of living rising, and loss of jobs especially in the mining industry fueled by a fall in global commodity prices.

The 2016 election has been complicated by the 50 percent plus one requirement for a presidential winner, a situation many feel none of the two candidates will be able to attain in the first round.

"This year's election will be the most competitive and perhaps the toughest since the advent of democracy in 1990, but largely the PF, as a sitting party, has between 55 and 60 percent chances of winning especially in the re-run," Gibson Mwewa, a social and political commentator told local media.

According to him, the voting pattern has not changed in anyway as the ruling party will obtain huge votes in its traditional provinces of Lusaka and the Copperbelt as well as the northern part of the country while the opposition will get massive votes in its traditional southern part, northwestern and western provinces.

However, the loss of jobs on the Copperbelt is seen as a minus for Lungu's victory as miners who lost jobs may vote for the opposition.

Dickson Daka, a 45-year-old teacher from Lusaka, said that the failure by the opposition to unite would give Lungu an advantage in the presidential re-run as the second main opposition candidate, Edith Nawakwi, was likely to support the Zambian leader.

Although the only female presidential contender has denied reports that her party will back Lungu in case of a re-run, media reports show that the two parties have agreed to work together.

But for former first lady Maureen Mwanawasa, who is contesting as mayor for the city of Lusaka on the UPND ticket, the odds are against the ruling party in the Thursday elections because voters are discontent on the prevailing economic situation in the country.

"All odds are against PF and come Thursday, PF will be history. PF should know is that no Zambian will stand in a polling booth on an empty stomach and cast a vote for them..." she said during a campaign rally.

But Lungu, who has repeatedly expressed optimism of winning the polls during campaign rallies, believes he is the best candidate to take the country forward and warned voters against experimenting with leadership.

About 6.7 million voters are expected to cast their votes, an increase from last year's 5.1 million voters, according to the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) register. Endit