News Analysis: Venezuela's recall referendum: 2016, 2017 or never?

Backers of a presidential recall referendum in Venezuela have met the first of several constitutional conditions needed to remove President Nicolas Maduro from office.

But recalling a democratically elected president is no easy job and the country's Constitution has many restrictions.

Should proponents of the referendum meet all of the prerequisites, when can the referendum take place?

Late Tuesday, Maduro said a recall referendum is "absolutely impossible" this year.

Maria Alejandra Diaz, a constitutional lawyer, believes that it will be "almost impossible" to hold the vote before Jan. 10, 2017.

This week, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that the right-wing opposition coalition, the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), fulfilled the first step by collecting about 2 million signatures, more than what the constitution requires.

The MUD will now have to gather signatures from 20 percent of registered voters, or nearly 4 million Venezuelans, for the referendum to proceed to the next phase.

Once those signatures are validated, the CNE is obligated to take no more than 72 hours to set a date for the referendum, which must take place within the next 90 days.

The MUD is eager to hold the recall vote as soon as possible. If Maduro is voted out before Jan. 10, 2017, then new elections can be held to choose a successor, and the opposition is banking on a win after years of economic turmoil.

If the vote takes place after Jan. 10 and if Maduro is voted out, his vice president will succeed him and sit throughout his current term of office, which ends on Jan. 10, 2019.

However, that scenario would be rejected by the people, said political observer Luis Francisco Cabezas.

"I can't see the possibility of the referendum being in 2017, the pressure on the street, the country's current situation calls for a solution this year," said Cabezas.

If the "CNE plays by the rules of the game and guarantees a level playing field in keeping with electoral norms, there would be no impediment to the referendum taking place in 2016," said Cabezas.

Gathering signatures worldwide from 20 percent of voters "will be a great gauge" of how the public feels about Maduro's administration, said Cabezas.

Jorge Rodriguez, mayor of Caracas and a leader of the ruling PSUV party, however, believes that it is just a matter of time before the recall process is annulled for fraud.

More than a third of the signatures the MUD submitted in June turned out to be fake or invalid for a variety of reasons, he noted.

In addition, the votes to unseat Maduro in the referendum must be no fewer than the votes that put him in power. Maduro won 7.5 million votes in April 2013 elections. Endi