Finnish speculation on EU-Russia trade after Brexit varies

Various vistas appeared in Finnish business circles about the impact of the departure of Britain from the EU on trade with Russia.

With a full front page headlined "Brexit will bring relief", Finnish business daily Kauppalehti on Wednesday anticipated better times.

Finnish food industries in particular have suffered from the EU sanctions against Russia and the latter's counter measures.

Markku Kivinen, Professor of the Aleksanteri Institute of the University of Helsinki, told Kauppalehti that in the long run Brexit could affect trade and relations between the EU and Russia.

"Europe needs the resources of Russia and the long term aim is to integrate Russia as a part of European structures," he said.

However, he added that major changes cannot be expected at least during the next half a year.

"Brexit may speed up the dismantling of sanctions within a couple of years," Kivinen said.

Risto E.J. Penttila, CEO of the Finland Chamber of Commerce, meanwhile expressed opinion against the easing of sanctions. In his view that would only happen if the EU somehow isolates Britain.

"In that case, debate would begin in Germany and Italy whether the doors to the Russian markets should be opened again," Penttila said, adding a diplomatic solution must be found.

Laura Solanko, a senior expert at the Institute for Economies in Transition of Bank of Finland, said it is difficult to see that Brexit would lead to a major change in the relations between the EU and Russia.

She pointed out that it has not been Britain that has promoted anti-Russia sanctions the loudest.

Kai Mykkanen, the new Finnish Minister for Foreign Trade, said he does not believe Brexit would refresh trade between the EU and Russia.

However, Mykkanen said trade between Finland and Russia may pickup a bit, within the frame of the sanctions. He referred to the increase in the price of oil and the stablization of the value of the ruble. Endit