Spotlight: Power struggle between NATO and Russia on rise

Fear of destabilization is growing as tension is brewing between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO, whose building-up in the Baltics and the Black Sea has incurred vowed retaliatory actions from Moscow.

Last month, the Unites States launched a ballistic missile shield in Romania against an alleged threat against Europe from Iran or some so-called "rogue state" in the Middle East.

For Russia, the shield is aimed at rendering its own missile capability ineffective and part of efforts to encircle it.

Moscow underlined that it would take protective measures against the system, as NATO is building another in Poland.

NATO has decided to deploy four combat-ready battalions -- with each having around 4,000 troops -- in Poland and the Baltic countries fearing Russian aggression, namely Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.

The military alliance is also mulling an offer by Romania to command a multinational brigade as a deterrence, said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in the past week.

"The global rivalry between the U.S. and Russia is perhaps at its all-time high since the end of the Cold War," observed Cahit Armagan Dilek, a security and foreign policy analyst.

Stoltenberg also stated that his organization would take measures to enhance "defense and deterrence" in the Black Sea region.

Noting both Russia and NATO have recently been busy with reinforcing their forces along bordering areas, Dilek, who was a staff officer in the Turkish Armed Forces, stated, "As of the end of this year, the U.S. military presence in Europe will be at its peak since the Cold War."

NATO says all the military build-up in the Baltic region is to deter Russia from engaging in any aggression against the Baltic republics as was the case of the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014.

The Baltic countries were, like Ukraine, to which Crimea belonged, part of the Soviet Union before it broke up in 1991.

The fall of the Soviet Union marks the end of the Cold War between NATO and the former Warsaw Pact countries led by the Soviet Union such as Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.

"The missile shield will put an end to the old 'mutually assured destruction' or the 'terror balance' theory between the East and the West and will give the upper hand to NATO in case of a nuclear war," said Yasar Yakis, a former Turkish foreign minister.

"Russia is uneasy for being trapped, but it has too few options to disentangle itself from this trap," added Yakis, who is currently the president of the Ankara-based Center for Strategic Communication (Stratim).

Another sign of rising tensions is the 10-day military exercises NATO completed in the past week in Poland.

The Anaconda 2016 NATO exercise, which involved 31,000 troops, was the largest ever war game in eastern Europe since the end of the Cold War.

In an apparent response to the NATO drills, President Vladimir Putin ordered a snap combat readiness of Russian armed forces early in the past week.

Moscow also warned that a NATO build-up in naval forces in the Black Sea would undermine regional security.

If a permanent NATO naval force is created in the Black Sea, it would be a destabilizing factor, said Andrei Kelin, a senior Russian Foreign Ministry official.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also called on NATO last month to increase its naval presence in the Black Sea to end Russian dominance.

The Black Sea looks like a Russian lake, Erdogan complainingly said at a meeting of chiefs of general staff from the Balkan countries in Istanbul.

Erdogan's remarks mark a sharp deviation from his country's policy of limiting, based on the Montreux Convention, the presence of "foreign" warships in the Black Sea.

Under the Montreux Convention signed in 1936, naval vessels of non-riparian countries cannot remain in the Black Sea for more than 21 days.

Furthermore, the aggregate tonnage of ships of non-riparian countries cannot exceed 45,000 tons in any circumstances.

Ankara-Moscow ties have been strained since Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in November last year.

According to Dilek, who believes the Turkish General Staff and Ministry of Foreign Affairs were taken by surprise by Erdogan's invitation of NATO vessels, the president's remarks imply that Turkey will favor the presence of a permanent NATO fleet in the Black Sea when the bloc's leaders meet early next month.

The issue of maintaining a fleet in the Black Sea is expected to come up at the NATO summit slated for July 8-9 in Warsaw, Poland.

In contrast to Dilek, Stratim's Yakis still does not think Turkey would offer, despite Erdogan's remarks, support to the presence of a NATO fleet in the Black Sea as such a step would mean questioning of the Montreux Convention.

"This would be shooting itself in the foot," Yakis said, noting that Turkey keeps the traffic of vessels into the Black Sea under control thanks to the convention.

The Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, two waterways connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean, are part of the Turkish territory.

Back in 2008 during the war between Russia and Georgia, Turkey blocked a U.S. attempt to enter a very large hospital ship into the Black Sea for fear that such a step would pave the way for the questioning of the Montreux Convention.

Both analysts said the presence of a permanent NATO naval force in the Black Sea would significantly increase the risk of crisis in the region.

"The increase in Russian and U.S. military presence in seas surrounding Turkey is not a positive development for Turkey," remarked Dilek.

Bulgaria, meanwhile, voiced its opposition last week to the idea of a NATO fleet in the Black Sea, saying it would not be part of the move.

The Black Sea should be a place where yachts and large boats with tourists sail rather than an arena of military action, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boiko Borisov said on Thursday.

"I do not need a war in the Black Sea," he stressed.

Following the entry of a U.S. warship into the Black Sea last week, Russia warned that it would take countermeasures.

Washington also made a show of force lately in the Mediterranean by sending in a second aircraft carrier.

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, accompanied by a group of warships, entered the Mediterranean at the beginning of the past week.

"For the first time since 2003, two U.S. carrier battle groups are positioned in the Mediterranean at the same time," noted Dilek.

Russia described the presence of two aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean as a show of force ahead of the upcoming NATO summit. Endit