Interview: Scholar warns of Brexit's huge impact on European economy

A European scholar told Xinhua in a recent interview that the impact of Britain leaving the EU will be huge on the European economy and on international relations in general.

"It would have quite a devastating impact politically because other member states will start to question their belonging to the EU," said Rosa Balfour, a senior fellow on the Europe program of German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Balfour noted that the UK is very important member of the EU. It is a large country which has global forum policy, which has global outreach. It is an important part of the EU economy and the European single market.

She upheld that the impact on Europe is going to be pretty devastating, but also on the UK, because Scotland is likely to want to join the EU. So in a few years time "it might hold its own referendum to split the United Kingdom."

"Northern Ireland is also in rather difficult predicament, because if Britain leaves the EU the relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will become harder. So there are lots of uncertainties of both sides if the vote is to leave," she added.

She pointed out that if Britain does vote to leave, negotiating its exit would be highly complicated and it will take a long time. "It is not going to happen tomorrow. I think the earliest we are talking about 2020."

"The exit bill will have to be ratified by the British parliament, so there is a lot of uncertainty on the road from the votes which will be held next week. And if the vote is to leave, toward the date it actually is taking place," said Balfour.

Concerning some arguments that those in Britain are putting forward that they can be an important nation outside the EU and that they can re-negotiate their agreements with Europe, Balfour said that all of this is possible, but the process in getting there will probably be very divisive, full of acrimony and hugely complicated.

"The UK and the debate in the UK is assuming that if powers go back to London British citizens would be able to decide. But actually the world is just a little bit more complicated than that and it doesn't mean that bringing back power to London will enable governments to make better decisions than those it makes together with its European partners in Brussels," she said.

Balfour also pointed out that there is not enough data to support these arguments that because of the migration influx people have become more euro-skeptic.

"What is happening is that right-wing populists who frequently are also euro-skeptics are using the influx of refugees as a platform to mobilize support, to push hate treats and xenophobia. That is what is happening. It is pretty much manipulation of the refugee search rather than a cause for euro-skepticism," she said. Endit