News Analysis: Experts rule out 3rd general elections in Spain

Political scientists Maria Ramos and Paul Simon ruled out the possibility of a third round of general elections in Spain.

In an interview with Xinhua, both ruled out the possibility that could arise if the June 26 election results lead to a similar situation as last December. At that time, no party won a sufficient majority to govern, and negotiations between parties did not lead to the formation of a government.

"It's difficult to think there will be a third general election," Ramos, a postdoctoral researcher at the Carlos III University said, "the distribution of seats is going to make very clear what the preferences of citizens will be and what the parties will understand is that they have to reach an agreement."

"I would completely rule out a third election," said Simon, a political science professor at Carlos III University said, noting that "political actors understand that it would be unacceptable wasting more time," citing the general state budget which needed to be passed for next year, and the pressure Brussels would put on Spain for political parties to reach an agreement.

The recently published pre-election survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) said if elections were held, the People's Party, (currently the acting government) would win the elections with 29.2 percent of the votes (between 118 and 122 seats compared with the 123 of December), followed by Podemos with 25.6 percent of the votes (obtaining between 88 and 92 seats).

"The relevance of this survey is that change between the second and third position, which occurs for the first time, that a party that is neither the PP (People's Party) nor the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) would be the second force," Simon said.

According to the CIS, the PSOE, currently the second political force with 90 seats after the December elections, would get 21.2 percent of the votes (between 78 and 80 seats) putting them in third place, and followed by Ciudadanos which would obtain 14.6 percent (between 38 and 39 seats compared to the 40 seats of December).

Spain has traditionally had a two-party system in which the two main political parties (PSOE and PP) have been occupying the government. However, with the emergence of left-wing party Podemos in 2014 obtaining five seats in the European elections, the political scenario has changed.

For the June elections, Podemos and Izquierda Unida (IU) have reached an agreement and they present a joint list; Podemos and coalitions in the regions of Galicia, Catalonia and Valencia had won 69 seats in December and Izquierda Unida-Popular Unity, 2.

"We knew that the electoral alliance between Podemos-IU was relatively profitable," Simon pointed out, "our electoral system penalizes third and fourth forces a lot, but the moment a party becomes second in the district (in this case, the province) it gives it an interesting bonus in terms of marginal seats."

The political scientists also noted the high loyalty of Podemos and People's Party voters, so they said there would be a lower volatility compared to the 2015 elections.

Podemos and Ciudadanos obtained seats in the Spanish parliament for the first time in December 2015 elections.

"Thirty-four percent of the votes went to parties that were not represented before, as now the volatility will be lower, the results will be more stable," Simon said.

The CIS survey is very good technically, they both said, but does not take into account the impact of the electoral campaign on voters' decisions, since the interviews were conducted between May 4 and 22 and the election campaign began last Thursday at midnight.

"During the remaining two-week campaign there may be slight changes in voting intention," Ramos said, explaining "the most undecided voters are Ciudadanos and PSOE's voters, those parties that proposed a pact of government, and you will somehow be wondering whether this option is the most appropriate or if that is ultimately what they want to repeat in the elections."

"Election campaigns matter. On Dec. 20, almost 40 percent of voters made their decision during the campaign. One in four voters made it during the last week," Simon said.

The election campaign began last week, now the parties have two weeks to attract as many supporters as possible before the elections on June 26, which will result in a government which must address important issues such as the high unemployment the country suffers. Endit