Interview: Confrontation over South China Sea to take "disastrous" toll on regional, U.S. economies -- expert

Confrontation over the South China Sea will take a "disastrous" toll on all the economies in the Asia-Pacific including the U.S. economy, a senior Bangladeshi economist has said.

Any armed hostile U.S. activity in the South China Sea will disrupt the main sea route in the region, which will be a disaster not only for the United States but also for the economies in the region, Muhammad Mahmood, former head of the School of Economics and Finance in Victoria University, told Xinhua in a recent interview.

"I believe the economic reality will bring some degree of sanity for the United States to desist from taking any rash decision," he said, referring to the fact that China remains one of the most important markets for a very large number of U.S. corporations and that China can cut off their business.

"This creates an internal pressure within the U.S. If China continues to grow, it means more business for them. Therefore, it will be unrealistic for the U.S. to continue to intensify its aggressive confrontation with China in the South China Sea," he added.

The current thinking in Washington identifies the South China Sea and the East China Sea as an area the United States must maintain its hegemony, the expert said.

Washington, therefore, is setting a much wider net to destabilize East and Northeast Asia, he said, calling on it to consider the cost of providing material support to its proxies against the economic loss.

"The price of such material support can rather be very staggering. China must remain vigilant but must not react to U.S. provocations," he said.

He said the United States is not a party to the disputes, but it has always said it only wants to ensure freedom of navigation.

China for a long time has maintained very safe passage around the South China Sea, Mahmood said. "It's China's lifeline. China must keep it free in its own interest."

He said it seems that the United States does not want China to rise peacefully.

"I think the U.S. is not fully aware that China will not do anything other than trying to regain its position it lost over the last decades falling under invasion and occupation," said Mahmood.

"China is now a regional power... This is a reality. Better you (some of the claimants) accept the reality and resolve the dispute mutually. And accommodate each other's interests," he said.

"Multilateralizing dispute is only drawing outside forces into neighboring countries," said the economist, adding that the U.S. "pivot to Asia" is "not only an naked interference, but also a policy to clinically manipulate the situation to its favor."

According to the economist, the South China Sea islands and surrounding waters have always been considered as Chinese territory and the corridor linking China to the rest of the world.

"China's nine-dotted line was drawn in 1947 but no country opposed it at that time. The People's Republic of China in 1949 endorsed that claim. If they have had a case they should have raised it in 1947," he said.

There is no doubt that China wants to settle the maritime territorial disputes through negotiations, the economist said.

He said he hoped that good sense will finally prevail in all major parties including the United States and the impasse will be resolved peacefully through bilateral discussions. "I think at the end of the day they would avoid the path of confrontation." Endi