News Analysis: New polls foreshadow tight presidential race between Trump, Clinton

For the first time, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his likely Democratic rival Hillary Clinton are running neck-in-neck in latest polls, which foreshadow a tight race in this year's U.S. presidential race.

Just six months ago most pundits and political observers dismissed Trump as a flash in the pan, but the brash billionaire now stands out as the winner in the Republican nomination fight. And, for the first time, he was leading in a Washington/ABC poll released on Saturday by 46 percent to 44 percent against Clinton.

Trump was also shown leading slightly in the May 13-19 Real Clear Politics poll average, by 43.4 percent to 43.2 percent, against Clinton.

With a margin of error around 2 points, the polls put the two candidates neck-in-neck, meaning that either candidate could clinch the White House in November.

Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, told Xinhua there is growing evidence that this can be a tough race for both candidates.

"It is too early to tell and the polls that matter are in swing states, but it is increasingly hard to ignore the evidence that Trump can be competitive," he said.

Darrell West, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Xinhua that the 2016 general election "is shaping up as a competitive race."

"Both candidates have high negatives, but each has significant support among the party base," he said.

But while the two candidates may have solidified their own base, the major X factor will be independent voters, and there is still no definitive answer regarding for whom those voters will support, the experts said.

"The major battleground of this election will be independent voters who are not aligned with either party. Some of the polls show Trump doing better with that group, while other surveys show the two candidates tied among independents," West said.

"My sense is the race will be close," he added.

With Trump having just effectively clinched the Republican Party (GOP) nomination, the numbers in recent polls likely reflect that.

"Trump has gotten a bump from having sealed the GOP nomination. Clinton will do likewise in June once she has nailed down the Democratic nomination," West said.

Still, the polls that will carry the most water will come out after the party conventions this summer.

"The key polls will be this summer following each of the party conventions. The way each candidate and party present themselves will matter a lot in terms of how the fall race will unfold," West said.

Experts said that if Trump wants to boost his numbers in the lead up to the November elections, he will have to behave in a more "presidential" manner.

That means he will have to tone down the brash rhetoric and speak in an authoritative way that will reassure voters, instead of just spouting off and hurling insults whenever he feels like it, as he has done since the start of his campaign.

Indeed, Trump has already begun to tone it down, a tactic highlighted recently when he made a formal foreign policy speech, which was written by a speech writer in a bid to make a cogent argument showcasing Trump's overseas priorities.

Zelizer expressed doubt that Trump will be able to transform himself 100 percent. "He is who he is and he realizes that part of his appeal comes from the bombast. He is smart enough to realize it is not smart to abandon everything that brought him to the dance," he said.

As for Clinton, West said she needs to show she is not just a conventional politician but can be an agent for change.

"Voters want someone who can shake things up and put America on a better course," West said.

Zelizer said Clinton will get a bump in the polls once she gets the nomination, although it will be limited, as she is already a known candidate. Enditem