News Analysis: Obama's visit to Vietnam more about prying, less about partnership

Both Vietnamese and U.S. officials have hailed U.S. President Barack Obama's planned visit to Vietnam as a historic one, but it will be more symbolic than substantive, creating no breakthrough in bilateral ties, observers have said.

Obama's trip to Vietnam slated for May 23-25 is the first by a U.S. president since George W. Bush visited in 2006 and the third visit by a U.S. president since the two countries established bilateral diplomatic relations in July 1995.

NOT ALL PEACHES AND CREAM

Reliable sources from both Vietnam and the U.S. on Friday said that, for the first time, Vietnam's all four highest-ranking officials, namely General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Nguyen Phu Trong, State President Tran Dai Quang, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc and National Assembly Chairwoman Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, will hold respective meetings with Obama.

Unlike the previous U.S. presidential visits to Vietnam, during which the host country's party chief, the most powerful man in the Southeast Asian nation, did not have a meeting with the guest, the approaching meeting this time indicates that the U.S. accepts Vietnam's political regime, and wants to see a strong, prosperous, and independent Vietnam, one of the sources said.

Obama and Vietnam's four leaders will discuss a wide range of bilateral, regional and global issues, including politics, security, investment, trade, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), science, technology, education, training, legacies of the Vietnam War, climate change and human rights.

During the visit, the two sides are expected to sign some documents relating to trade, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and English training, the source said, noting that Boeing and a Vietnamese carrier are scheduled to ink a multi-billion dollar deal.

Recently, Vietnamese Ambassador to the United States, Pham Quang Vinh, told reporters that Obama's trip will beef up the Vietnam-U.S. comprehensive partnership and push bilateral links forward, not only during his term in office, but also during the following tenures of future presidents.

The ambassador said he hoped that during the visit, the U.S. will completely lift its ban on lethal weapons sales to Vietnam and thus remove the last barrier in bilateral relations and enhance mutual trust. He added he also hoped for robust growth in two-way trade after the TPP takes effect.

U.S. officials, for their part, are also pinning high hopes on the upcoming trip. The U.S.'s National Security Council Senior Director for Asian Affairs, Daniel Kritenbrink, told reporters that Obama will discuss with Vietnam's leaders ways for the U.S.-Vietnam comprehensive partnership to advance cooperation across a wide range of areas, including on economic, people-to-people, security, human rights, and global and regional issues.

Meanwhile, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel said: "Clearly, stronger bilateral relations with this dynamic country of 90 million people, which is an increasingly important partner for us on a whole range of issues, benefits both nations."

However, as with the phrase "under the red carpet there are pointed nails" coined by local media to describe actual situations in which local cities and provinces welcome foreign investors, but red-tape and cumbersome administrative still exist there, Obama's visit will be not be all peaches and cream for Vietnam.

CROUCHING TYRANT, HIDDEN DANGER

The upcoming Vietnam visit by the U.S. president will not really result in pushing bilateral ties to a higher level, some political watchers attest.

In July 2013, President Obama and former Vietnamese president Truong Tan Sang launched the U.S.-Vietnam comprehensive partnership, an overarching framework for advancing bilateral ties. Since then, however, few substantial projects have been conducted under the framework.

A reliable source told Xinhua that during Obama's trip, the U.S. and Vietnam will not upgrade their ties to a strategic partnership, because their current comprehensive partnership has yet to bear fruit.

"The United States has never given up on its 'peaceful evolution' strategy aimed at eventually overthrowing the Vietnamese communist regime, although the strategy has become increasingly sophisticated and harder to detect and combat," the source, requesting anonymity, explained.

Vietnam is becoming an increasingly important player in the region. Various U.S. moves, including Obama's upcoming trip, are aiming at further implementing its rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region to establish a greater influence there.

The U.S. is building new partnerships with emerging powers, and is consolidating treaties with allies in the region. With zero claims over the South China Sea, it frequently interferes in territorial disputes between China and some Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, causing regional tensions.

Coupled with this, while seeking closer ties with Vietnam, the U.S. often exploits such "cards" as human rights issues and arms embargoes to leverage itself. Even U.S. officials do not hide their true intensions relating to such issues.

Responding to a question posed by a Chinese reporter on Thursday, "Rumor has it that the United States might very likely lift the ban on arms sales to Vietnam. So can we expect there will be any announcement by the President soon?" Kritenbrink answered: "In 2014, we enacted a partial lifting of the ban to allow for the sale of maritime-related security articles. And as we made clear at that time, all of those sales are reviewed on a case-by-case basis, and that human rights considerations are a part of that process. And I think it's fair to say that human rights considerations will remain a central element to our relationship going forward."

Many U.S. organizations and individuals have called for Washington not to lift its restrictions on direct weapons sales to Hanoi without first seeing a real change in its attitude on human rights.

Even if the United States lifts the decades-long ban some day, Vietnam will also find it hard to utilize the move, said a Vietnamese expert on the issue.

Some U.S. military hardware is not the best in the world, while others are too costly. Russia is a traditional major supplier of military hardware to Vietnam, the expert noted. Enditem